Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid: Trial at San Mamés, Key Players Missing vs Ambition to Reclaim Top Spot

La Liga Round 19, Athletic Bilbao hosts Real Madrid at San Mamés on December 4th. 8th place Bilbao (20 points) vs 2nd place Madrid (33 points). Bilbao is missing a host of key players, and Madrid is aiming to reclaim the top spot. Who will be the winner of El Viejo Clásico?

Real Madrid (2nd)

• ●13 Games: 10 wins 3 draws 0 losses
• ●Goals For/Against: 29 goals scored 13 goals conceded
• ●Goal Difference: +16
• ●Points: 33 points
• ●xG/xGA: 31.0 / 14.4

Athletic Bilbao (8th)

• ●14 Games: 5 wins 5 draws 4 losses
• ●Goals For/Against: 14 goals scored 17 goals conceded
• ●Goal Difference: -3
• ●Points: 20 points
• ●xG/xGA: 16.0 / 12.0

Madrid is overwhelming. xG of 31.0 is top level in the league. Bilbao's actual goals conceded (17 goals) is 5 goals more than their expected goals against (12.0). This means there are frequent defensive mistakes.

Real Madrid's Away Struggles

They have recorded 2 wins 2 draws 1 loss in their last 5 games. They are especially struggling in La Liga away games:

• ●Last 3 Away League Games: 3 draws (Rayo 0-0, Elche 2-2, Girona 1-1)

They have only won one league game in the month of November. Points are being dropped.

However, they recovered their attacking power with a 4-3 win against Olympiacos in the Champions League. It is positive that Mbappé's goal-scoring sense has been revived.

Athletic Bilbao's Fluctuations

They have recorded 2 wins 1 draw 2 losses in their last 5 games. They reversed the mood with a 2-0 win in the last away game against Levante.

But their home record is not as good as before:

• ●7 Home Games this season: 13 points
• ●The reputation of 'graveyard of away teams' has faded.

Athletic Bilbao's Spine Collapsing

Defense Collapse:

• ●Yeray Álvarez: Suspension
• ●Aymeric Laporte: Viral illness (Uncertain to play)
• ●Yuri Berchiche: Injury during training (Possible absence)

Midfield Void:

• ●Oihan Sancet: Suspension due to red card (Team's top scorer!)
• ●Beñat Prados: Injury

Attack Weakened:

• ●Iñaki Williams: Groin injury (Doubtful to play)
• ●Nico Williams: Sports Hernia (Needs playtime management)

Almost all the key players are missing. This is really critical.

Real Madrid's Defensive Return

Injured Players:

• ●Dani Carvajal: Knee surgery (Long-term absence)
• ●Ferland Mendy: Hamstring (Cannot return within the year)
• ●David Alaba: Muscle problem
• ●Dinh Huijsen: Muscle problem

Positive Factors:

• ●Éder Militão: Return
• ●Antonio Rüdiger: Return

The core of the central defense has returned, so the defense has stabilized.

Real Madrid's Asymmetrical Build-up

Coach Xabi Alonso uses TAA as a right full-back, but raises him to the center when attacking. It's a tactic to gain numerical superiority in midfield.

Normally, Bilbao would press hard with Sancet at the center, but now they don't have key players. They have no choice but to play zonal defense, which allows Madrid midfielders free space.

Fatal Mismatch: Mbappé & Vinícius vs Makeshift Defense

Yeray and Laporte are out. Vivian and Paredes, who will come out instead, are slow. It is difficult to stop Mbappé and Vinícius's speed.

Madrid's quick transitions and penetration into the space behind the defense will destroy Bilbao's loosened defense.

1. Bilbao's Power Vacuum

Most of the key players are missing. Both attack and defense have weakened. This is a really fatal weakness.

2. Madrid's Scoring Power

xG of 31.0 is the best in the league. Mbappé is explosive with 14 goals. It is enough to break through Bilbao's shaky defense (+5 goals conceded compared to xGA).

3. Motivation to Reclaim Top Spot

Madrid is chasing Barcelona by one point with one game less played. If they win this game, they can regain the top spot. The motivation is strong.

SportsMole (Matt Law): "Bilbao's injury problems are severe. Madrid will take all three points." (1-2 analysis)

90min & Sports Illustrated: "The collapse of Bilbao's spine is a big boon for Madrid."

Betting Expert: 60-65% probability of Real Madrid winning

AI Simulation: 1-2 or 0-2 Real Madrid win is the most frequent

Athletic Bilbao (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Simón
• ●DF: De Marcos, Vivian, Paredes, Yuri
• ●MF: Luis, Vesga
• ●AM: Gomes, Muniain, Nico Williams
• ●FW: Guruzeta

⚠️ Missing: Sancet, Yeray, Prados + Laporte, Yuri, Iñaki doubtful

Real Madrid (4-3-3)

• ●GK: Courtois
• ●DF: Alexander-Arnold, Militão, Rüdiger, García
• ●MF: Valverde, Camavinga, Bellingham
• ●FW: Rodrigo, Mbappé, Vinícius

⚠️ Missing: Carvajal, Mendy, Alaba, Huijsen

Madrid is expected to win overwhelmingly. Bilbao's power vacuum is too big. Almost all the key players are missing. Madrid's defense core has returned, and their attacking power is also top level.

The expected score is 1-2 Real Madrid win. Bilbao will score one goal at home, but it is difficult to stop Madrid's firepower. Mbappé and Vinícius will destroy Bilbao's makeshift defense.

Total goals over 2.5 is likely. In the past, San Mamés games had many low scores, but this time there is a special feature of Bilbao's defense collapsing. Madrid's defense has also been shaken recently, conceding goals.

Madrid can aim to regain the top spot with this win. It is a great opportunity to break the chain of 3 consecutive away draws and chase Barcelona.

It will be a really difficult game for Bilbao. They have to stop the league's strongest attack without key players.