Bologna vs Parma: Emilia Derby Set for Stalemate

Stadio Renato Dall'Ara hosts the Emilia Derby with both sides struggling for consistency. Bologna hold a dominant home head-to-head record, but recent home struggles suggest a draw is the most likely outcome.

Bologna - Home Struggles

Bologna's last 6 show 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses — inconsistent. They average 1.83 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with defensive issues evident. With 20 shots (6 on target) and 60% possession, they create chances but lack finishing.

Home form is worse: winless in 3 (2 losses, 1 draw), averaging 1 goal and 2.33 conceded. Despite 22 shots and 62% possession, victories elude them. Being 8 winless in 10 home league games is concerning, though 24 unbeaten in 30 home matches overall provides some comfort.

Parma - Away Day Nightmare

Parma's last 6 produced 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses — worse than Bologna. They average 0.5 goals and 2.0 conceded — dire numbers. With under 45% possession and just 1.83 shots on target, attacking threat is minimal.

Away form is disastrous: 86% winless (30 of 35) in recent away matches. Just 15 goals from 23 league games is bottom-tier. However, 4 clean sheets in 10 away provides hope for securing a point.

Attacking Metrics

• ●Last 6 games goals: Bologna 1.83 vs Parma 0.5
• ●Home goals (last 3): Bologna 1.0
• ●Season total: Bologna 32 vs Parma 15
• ●Shots per game: Bologna 20 vs Parma low

Defensive Metrics

• ●Last 6 games conceded: Bologna 2.0 vs Parma 2.0
• ●Home conceded (last 3): Bologna 2.33
• ●Season conceded: Bologna 30 vs Parma 30
• ●Away clean sheets (10 games): Parma 4

Possession

• ●Bologna 60% (62% home) vs Parma under 45%

Winless Records

• ●Bologna home: 8 winless in 10 ⚠️
• ●Parma away: 86% winless in 35 ⚠️

Bologna (10th)

Sitting 10th after 23 games with 32 scored and 30 conceded (+2 GD), Bologna are mid-table. Unable to win at home, their European push has stalled. Three points here would reignite those ambitions.

Parma (14th)

Parma occupy 14th with just 15 scored and 30 conceded (-15 GD) — one of the league's lowest scoring teams. Their away struggles are dragging them toward the relegation conversation. At minimum, a point is needed to maintain distance from the drop zone.

• ●At Dall'Ara (last 5): Bologna 3W 2D (unbeaten)
• ●Overall (last 10): Bologna 40% wins by 2+ goals

Bologna hold dominant home head-to-head advantage. Being unbeaten in 5 at home (3 wins, 2 draws) with 40% multi-goal victories provides significant psychological edge.

Bologna's Possession Game

Bologna's 4-3-3 sees Freuler and Pobega controlling midfield. Orsolini and Rowe offer pace on the flanks, with Castro leading the line. De Silvestri and Lucumí's absences are manageable. Despite 62% possession and 22 shots, converting this dominance into goals is the challenge — they're winless in 3 home games.

Parma's Defensive Approach

Parma's 4-3-3 prioritizes defensive solidity. Delprato and Circati anchor the backline, with Keita and Bernabé screening. Ondrejka and Pellegrino provide counter-attack threat. 5 injuries (Valenti, Suzuki, Cremaschi, Ndiaye, Almqvist) limit depth. With 0.5 goals per game, winning is unlikely — targeting a draw is realistic.

Bologna (4-3-3)

• ●GK: Skorupski
• ●DF: Heggem, Casale, Zortea, Miranda
• ●MF: Freuler, Odgaard, Pobega
• ●FW: Orsolini, Castro, Rowe

Parma (4-3-3)

• ●GK: Corvi
• ●DF: Delprato, Circati, Troilo, Valeri
• ●MF: Keita, Oristanio, Bernabé
• ●FW: Pellegrino, Ondrejka, Nicolussi Caviglia

1. Bologna's Finishing Problem

Winless in 3 home games despite 22 shots and 62% possession — converting chances is the issue. Unless Orsolini and Castro rediscover their touch, another frustrating draw awaits.

2. Parma's Away Limitations

Being 86% winless in 35 away with 0.5 goals per game makes winning at Dall'Ara highly unlikely. A point requires 90-minute defensive concentration.

3. Draw Tendency

Bologna's 8 winless in 10 home and Parma's 86% away winless — both teams struggle to win. Their respective weaknesses (Bologna's finishing, Parma's scoring) point toward stalemate.

This is a classic mid-lower table derby with draw as the most likely outcome. Bologna's 5-game unbeaten home H2H is offset by their 8 winless in 10 home form. Parma's 86% away winless confirms neither side wins easily.

Bologna will dominate possession and shots but struggle to finish. Parma will defend deep and target a goal on the counter or set piece. Final analysis: 1-1 draw