Bologna vs Sassuolo: A Fierce Battle in the Emilia-Romagna Derby

It's a regional derby. 6th-placed Bologna faces 10th-placed Sassuolo at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. The previous encounter saw a 4-2 goal fest, but considering both teams' recent form, this time might be different. This match on December 28th is expected to be a low-scoring affair.

Bologna (6th)

• ●Season Record: 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses (15 matches)
• ●Goals: 23 goals / Conceded: 13 goals (Goal Difference +10)
• ●Last 6 Matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1.17 goals / Average Goals Conceded: 1.33 goals
• ●Last 3 Home Matches: 1 goal scored / 1 goal conceded
• ●Home Shots on Target: 4.67
• ●Last 15 Home League Matches: 80% undefeated
• ●Last 15 Home Matches Clean Sheets: 50%
• ●Last 40 Home Serie A Matches: 58% win rate

Bologna is having a stable season. A goal difference of +10 means they are ahead by 0.67 goals per game. They are especially strong at home. They are undefeated in 80% of their 15 matches, with half being clean sheets. However, their last 6 matches have been inconsistent. They are only scoring 1.17 goals per game. Their attack seems to have stalled a bit.

Sassuolo (10th)

• ●Season Record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses (16 matches)
• ●Goals: 21 goals / Conceded: 20 goals (Goal Difference +1)
• ●Last 6 Matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1.67 goals / Average Goals Conceded: 1.33 goals
• ●Away Shots: 11.5 / Shots on Target: 4.17
• ●Away Possession: 44.33% (Low)
• ●Last 6 Away Matches: 83% undefeated
• ●Last 7 Away Matches Clean Sheets: 43%
• ●But Last 20 Matches: 50% losses

Sassuolo also has the same record as Bologna in their last 6 matches. 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses. However, their scoring ability is slightly higher at 1.67 goals per game. It's impressive that they have remained undefeated in 83% of their last 6 away matches. Their defense is improving.

When they met in February 2024, Bologna won convincingly 4-2.

• ●Possession: Bologna 70% vs Sassuolo 30%
• ●Shots: Bologna 19 vs Sassuolo 12
• ●Shots on Target: 4 each for both teams
• ●Dangerous Attacks: Bologna 59 vs Sassuolo 41
• ●Goal Scorers: Thorstvedt, Zirkzee, Volpato, Fabbian, Ferguson, Saelemaekers

It was a game completely dominated by Bologna. 70% possession and 19 shots. It was a goal fest with 6 goals scored. But this time it will be different. Both teams' recent form is similarly inconsistent.

Head-to-Head Record in the Last 3 Matches: Bologna undefeated (including 2 draws)

Bologna's Home Strategy

Bologna, under coach Vincenzo Italiano, is stable at home. They are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Castro will be the lone striker, with Orsolini and Dominguez moving on the flanks. Odgaard will play the number 10 role, and Moro and Fobega will be the defensive midfielders responsible for the midfield.

The problem is that they have many injuries. Immobile, Bernardeschi, and Freuler are all out. With key attackers and midfielders missing, their attacking options are limited. This may be why they have only scored 1 goal per game at home recently.

Sassuolo's Away Challenge

Sassuolo, under coach Fabio Grosso, is a team that endures away from home. They are likely to line up in a 4-3-3 formation.

Chedira will be the lone striker, with Volpato and Laurienté supporting from the flanks. Matic will orchestrate the game in midfield based on his experience, and Thorstvedt and Kone will play box-to-box roles.

Their away possession is only 44%. They are not a team that holds the ball a lot. Instead, they defend and look for counterattacks. The fact that they have remained undefeated in 83% of their last 6 away matches is evidence that this tactic is working.

1. Bologna's Limited Attacking Options

The absence of Immobile and Bernardeschi is a big loss. Castro alone has to break through the Sassuolo defense, which won't be easy. They have to rely on Orsolini's individual skills. Lukumí may have to aim for a goal from a set-piece.

2. Sassuolo's Counterattack Efficiency

Sassuolo is getting results even with only 44% possession. Chedira and Laurienté are dangerous on the counterattack. They will target moments when Bologna commits players to attack. Whether or not they can capitalize on a counterattack opportunity could decide the game.

3. Midfield Domination Battle

Matic vs Moro, Fobega. A battle of experienced midfielders. Whoever holds the ball longer will determine the flow of the game. Bologna will likely have a possession advantage at home, but Sassuolo won't give it up easily.

Bologna Home Trends

• ●Last 15 Home League Matches: 80% undefeated
• ●Last 15 Home Matches Clean Sheets: 50%
• ●Last 40 Home Serie A Matches: 58% win rate
• ●vs Sassuolo Last 3 Matches: Undefeated (including 2 draws)
• ●vs Sassuolo Last 7 Matches: 3 matches won by 2 or more goals

Sassuolo Away Trends

• ●Last 6 Away Matches: 83% undefeated
• ●Last 7 Away Matches Clean Sheets: 43%
• ●But Last 20 Matches: 50% losses

Bologna is strong at home, and Sassuolo has been enduring well away from home recently. If these conflicting trends collide, a draw is likely.

Bologna Missing (Many!)

• ●Heegem, Immobile, Casale, Vitik, Bernardeschi, Freuler

Sassuolo Missing

• ●Turati, Berardi, Pieragnolo, Koulibaly

Bologna has as many as 6 players out. The absence of Immobile and Bernardeschi is a big blow to their attack. Sassuolo is also missing Berardi, but they can relatively maintain their core lineup.

Bologna (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Ravaglia
• ●DF: Zortea, Lucumí, Miranda, Holm
• ●MF: Moro, Fobega, Orsolini, Odgaard, Dominguez
• ●FW: Castro

Sassuolo (4-3-3)

• ●GK: Muric
• ●DF: Valukiewicz, Ides, Muharemovic, Doig
• ●MF: Matic, Thorstvedt, Kone
• ●FW: Volpato, Chedira, Laurienté

Predicted Score: Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo

A draw. The probability is 39%.

Both teams have the same record in their last 6 matches. 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses. Their form is similar, and their defense is similarly stable. These kinds of games usually end in a draw.

Bologna will score first at home, but Sassuolo can also create an equalizer with a counterattack. Chedira is likely to score a goal on the counter. In the end, a 1-1 scenario is the most realistic.

Under 2.5 goals is likely. Both teams have only scored in the 1-goal range per game recently, and their defense has also been stable. It's unlikely that there will be a goal fest like the 4-2 in the previous encounter.

It will be a fierce regional derby. It's a game that neither team can afford to lose. A cautious approach is expected, and each goal will be valuable. It is highly likely that both teams' fans will have a disappointing ending, sharing 1 point each.

#SerieA #Bologna #Sassuolo #EmiliaDerby #MatchPreview #LowScore