Como vs Milan: The Runner-up Candidate Challenges the Home Fortress

6th place meets 2nd place. This looks set to be one of the most impressive matches of the season. Como are a newly promoted team but are in 6th place, while Milan are aiming for the Scudetto and maintaining 2nd place. Can Como, a home fortress, stop Milan's dominance in this match at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on January 15th?

Calcio Como (6th)

• ●Season Record: 9 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses (19 matches) / Goal Difference: +14
• ●Goals Scored: 27 goals / Goals Conceded: 13 goals
• ●Recent 6 Matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1.33 goals / Average Goals Conceded: 1 goal
• ●Possession: Over 60% / Shots: 14 shots
• ●Recent 3 Home Matches: Undefeated (2 wins, 1 draw)
• ●Average Goals Conceded at Home: 0.33 goals / Shots on Target at Home: 6 or more
• ●Recent 20 Home Matches: Undefeated in 17 matches (85%)
• ●Clean Sheets in Recent 15 Home Matches: 8 times (53%)
• ●Recent 20 Matches: Undefeated in 17 matches (85%)

Como are causing a sensation this season. 6th place as a newly promoted team! They are especially formidable at home. They are undefeated in 85% of their last 20 matches. They only concede 0.33 goals per game and have a clean sheet rate of 53%. The Sinigaglia has become a real fortress. A goal difference of +14 means they are benefiting by 0.7 goals per game.

AC Milan (2nd)

• ●Season Record: 11 wins, 7 draws, 1 loss (19 matches) / Goal Difference: +15
• ●Goals Scored: 30 goals / Goals Conceded: 15 goals
• ●Recent 6 Matches: 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1.33 goals / Average Goals Conceded: 1 goal
• ●Shots: 16 shots / Possession: 55%
• ●Recent 3 Away Matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss
• ●Average Goals Scored Away: 0.67 goals
• ●Recent 15 Matches: 87% Undefeated
• ●Recent 30 League Matches: Undefeated in 26 matches (87%)
• ●Recent 11 Away Matches: Undefeated in 9 matches (82%)
• ●Clean Sheets in Recent 20 Away Matches: 40%

Milan are also stable. They are undefeated in 87% of their last 30 matches. They have only lost 1 out of 19 matches. However, they have been slightly faltering in recent away games. They have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 3 matches, and they are only scoring 0.67 goals per game. The drop in away goal-scoring ability could be a variable.

Looking at the recent 2 matches:

• ●Milan: 2 wins (Perfect win record!)
• ●Como: 0 goals scored (Shutout loss)

Milan have won all of their recent 2 matches against Como. Como haven't scored a single goal. But this time it's Como's home game. It seems unlikely that a team that is undefeated in 85% of their home games will produce the same result.

Como's Home Resistance

Cesko Fabregas' Como are strong at home. They are likely to play offensively in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Dubickas will lead the attack, with Nico Paz and Da Cunha moving on the flanks and in the center. Kakre and Peronne will be responsible for the midfield, and Kemp and Ramon will defend.

They dominate the game with over 60% possession at home. They also create 6 or more shots on target. Milan's defense records 40% clean sheets away from home, but it won't be easy at Como's home.

It's a shame that Morata and Diao are missing, but Dubickas can adequately replace them.

Milan's Away Challenge

Sergio Conceicao's Milan are strong even away from home. They are likely to play in a 3-5-2 formation.

Leão and Pulisic form the two-top. Modrić orchestrates the game in midfield, and Rabiot and Fofana distribute the ball. Tomori and De Vinter are in charge of the defense.

They have been undefeated in 82% of their last 11 away matches. However, their attacking efficiency has declined as they have only scored 0.67 goals per game in their last 3 matches. Leão and Pulisic need to come alive.

It's a shame that Jimenez and Pavlovic are missing, but the core lineup can be maintained.

1. Como's Home Advantage vs Milan's Away Stability

Como are undefeated in 85% of their last 20 home matches. Milan are also undefeated in 82% of their last 11 away matches. Both are strong teams. This contest will determine the outcome of the match.

2. Defensive Strength of Both Teams

Como only concede 0.33 goals per game at home. Milan also only concede 1 goal per game. Both are good defensive teams. It is unlikely that many goals will be scored.

3. Milan's Recovery of Away Goal-scoring Ability

Milan have only scored 0.67 goals per game in their last 3 away matches. If Leão and Pulisic don't come alive, it will be difficult to break through Como's defense.

Como Home Trends

• ●Recent 20 Home Matches: 85% Undefeated (17 matches)
• ●Clean Sheets in Recent 15 Home Matches: 53% (8 times)
• ●Recent 20 Matches: 85% Undefeated (17 matches)
• ●Average Goals Conceded at Home: 0.33 goals

Milan Away Trends

• ●Recent 30 League Matches: 87% Undefeated (26 matches)
• ●Recent 15 Matches: 87% Undefeated
• ●Recent 11 Away Matches: 82% Undefeated (9 matches)
• ●Clean Sheets in Recent 20 Away Matches: 40%
• ●But Goals Scored in Recent 3 Away Matches: 0.67 goals

Both teams have impressive undefeated records. Como have been undefeated in 85% of their home games, and Milan have been undefeated in 87% overall. However, Milan's drop in away goal-scoring ability is a variable.

Como Absentees

• ●Morata (adductor muscle), Goldaniga (heel), Diao (national team)

Milan Absentees

• ●Jimenez (ankle surgery), Pavlovic (head injury)

It's a shame that Morata is missing for Como, but Dubickas can replace him. Milan's attacking options have been limited due to Jimenez's absence.

Como (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Bütez
• ●DF: Kempf, Jacopo Ramon, Alberto Moreno, Van der Brempt
• ●MF: Kakre, Peronne, Da Cunha, Jesus Rodriguez, Nico Paz
• ●FW: Dubickas

Milan (3-5-2)

• ●GK: Maignan
• ●DF: Tomori, De Vinter, Bartesaghi
• ●MF: Saelemaekers, Rabiot, Modrić, Fofana, Estupiñán
• ●FW: Leão, Pulisic

Predicted Score: Como 0-2 Milan

Milan win. The probability is 46%.

Both teams have good defenses, so a tight battle is expected in the first half. Goals won't come easily.

Milan are likely to unravel the game in the second half. If Leão or Pulisic score a goal with individual skill, Como will have no choice but to come forward. Then, the most realistic scenario is that Milan will score an additional goal in a counterattack and end up winning 2-0.

Under 2.5 goals is likely to occur. Como only concede 0.33 goals per game at home, and Milan only concede 1 goal per game. Rather than a thrilling goal fest, it is likely to be a tense, close match.

It's a big stage for Como fans. It will be interesting to see how the promoted team performs against 2nd-placed Milan. Milan fans need to secure 3 points in the Scudetto race. If their away goal-scoring ability comes alive, they can win.

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