Legia Warsaw vs. Lincoln Red Imps: 11 Games Without a Win vs. 13 Undefeated in 15 Matches

In the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage, Round 6, Legia Warsaw hosts Lincoln Red Imps on December 18th. Legia is in last place with 1 win and 4 losses, while Lincoln is in the mid-table with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. However, their recent form is the complete opposite.

Lincoln Red Imps

• ●5 Matches: 2 Wins, 1 Draw, 2 Losses
• ●Goals For/Against: 6 Goals For, 11 Goals Against
• ●Goal Difference: -5
• ●Points: 7 Points
• ●Average Per Game: 1.2 Goals For / 2.2 Goals Against

Legia Warsaw

• ●5 Matches: 1 Win, 0 Draws, 4 Losses
• ●Goals For/Against: 4 Goals For, 7 Goals Against
• ●Goal Difference: -3
• ●Points: 3 Points
• ●Average Per Game: 0.8 Goals For / 1.4 Goals Against

Both teams have unstable defenses. Lincoln has a slightly better scoring record, but 2.2 goals conceded per game is really high.

Legia Warsaw's 11-Game Winless Streak

On an 11-game winless streak (100%). This is a truly terrible situation.

Last 6 Matches: 2 Draws, 4 Losses

• ●Average Per Game: 0.67 Goals For / 1.5 Goals Against
• ●Shots: 12.17 (4 shots on target)
• ●Possession: 48.33%

Currently on a 3-game losing streak.

Home Last 3 Matches:

• ●1 Draw, 2 Losses
• ●Average Per Game: 0.67 Goals For / 1.33 Goals Against
• ●Shots: 11.33 (3.33 shots on target)
• ●Possession: 51%

However, their long-term home record in the Conference League is decent:

• ●Last 20 Conference League Matches: 10 Wins (50%)
• ●Last 12 Home Conference League Matches: 42% Clean Sheets (5 Matches)

Lincoln Red Imps' Unbeaten Run

They have recorded 4 Wins, 1 Draw, and 1 Loss in their last 6 matches. They have scored 2.83 goals per game and only conceded 1 goal. This is a really good run.

Shots: 8.17 (4 shots on target) Possession: 37.83% (low but efficient)

Undefeated in 13 of their last 15 matches (87%)

Their away record is excellent:

• ●Last 40 Away Matches Overall: 68% Win Rate (27 Wins!)
• ●Last 20 Away Matches: 16 Undefeated Matches (80%)
• ●47% of their last 15 away wins were by 2 goals or more (7 Matches)

However, they are a completely different team in the Conference League:

• ●Last 12 Conference League Matches: 8 Losses
• ●Last 15 Conference League Matches: 12 Winless Matches (80%)
• ●In their last 19 Conference League matches, 12 matches were losses by 2 goals or more (63%)

Legia Warsaw's 4-2-3-1

The team under coach Gonçalo Feio is stuck in an 11-game winless streak. Lajović is struggling up front, but lacks support.

Augustyniak and Szymański protect the midfield, and Piątkowski and Kapuadi lead the defense. They have a lot of shots (12.17), but only 4 are on target.

Lincoln Red Imps' 4-4-2

The team under coach Miguel Ángel Torrechilla is in good form recently. Gómez and De Barr are responsible for scoring up front.

Toni and Pozo protect the midfield, and Lopes and Lútjens lead the defense. Their possession is low (37.83%), but efficient.

1. Legia's 11-Game Winless Streak

They are on an 11-game winless streak. They are also on a 3-game losing streak. Can they end their winless streak in this match?

2. Lincoln's Conference Struggles

They are undefeated in 13 of their last 15 matches overall, but they are winless in 12 of their last 15 Conference League matches. Their defense collapses when the level rises (2.2 goals conceded per game).

3. Home vs. Away

Legia has been strong at home in the past in the Conference League (42% clean sheets). Lincoln is really strong away from home with 27 wins in 40 away matches. Which will prevail?

analysis Probability:

• ●Legia Win: 36%
• ●Predicted Score: 2-1

The algorithm is predicting a narrow victory for Legia. Their past home record in the Conference League and Lincoln's struggles in the Conference League are decisive factors. But Legia's 11-game winless streak lowers the probability.

Legia Warsaw (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Tobiasz
• ●DF: Stojanović, Piątkowski, Kapuadi, Reça
• ●MF: Augustyniak, Szymański
• ●AM: Wszołek, Urbański, Krasniqi
• ●FW: Lajović

Lincoln Red Imps (4-4-2)

• ●GK: Hankins
• ●DF: Muñoz, Lopes, Lútjens, Nano
• ●MF: Toni, Pozo, Dabo, Arguess
• ●FW: Gómez, De Barr

This is a really difficult match to predict. Legia is on an 11-game winless streak, but they have been strong at home in the Conference League in the past (42% clean sheets). Lincoln is undefeated in 13 of their last 15 matches, but they are winless in 12 of their last 15 Conference League matches.

The predicted score is 2-1 for a Legia win. This is a scenario where Legia breaks their 11-game winless streak with the power of their home crowd. Lajović and Krasniqi will likely share the goals.

But we can't ignore Lincoln's recent form. 27 wins in 40 away matches is really impressive. They are scoring 2.83 goals per game.

The problem is the Conference League level. Lincoln is conceding 2.2 goals per game in the Conference League. It will be difficult to stop Legia's attack (12.17 shots).

Both teams are likely to score. Legia concedes 1.4 goals per game in the Conference League, while Lincoln concedes 2.2. Both have unstable defenses.

Legia is really desperate. If they can't break their 11-game winless streak, their season could completely collapse. They must win in front of their home crowd.

Lincoln is also aiming to advance to the Round of 16 with 7 points. But with a defense that concedes 2.2 goals per game in the Conference League, it will be difficult to beat Legia.