Marseille vs Liverpool: A Tactical Battle at the Velodrome

On January 21st, two philosophies collide at the Velodrome: Roberto De Zerbi's expansive football vs. Arne Slot's organized structure. Both teams want the ball, which makes it even more interesting. Whoever controls the tempo will determine the 90 minutes.

Olympique Marseille (Last 6 Matches)

• ●Record: 4 Wins, 1 Draw, 1 Loss
• ●Average Goals Scored: 3.83 Goals
• ●Average Goals Conceded: 1.0 Goal
• ●Shots Per Game: 18.33 (Shots on Target 8.83)
• ●Possession: 62.17%

Liverpool (Last 6 Matches)

• ●Record: 2 Wins, 4 Draws, 0 Losses
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1.5 Goals
• ●Average Goals Conceded: 0.83 Goals
• ●Shots Per Game: 17.33 (Shots on Target 4.67)
• ●Possession: 65.67%

There's an interesting contrast here. Marseille is explosive in attack, averaging 3.83 goals per game. On the other hand, Liverpool is on an unbeaten run but has more draws than wins. However, they concede very few goals. One team relies on firepower, while the other relies on stability.

Last 3 Matches at the Velodrome

• ●Record: 1 Win, 1 Draw, 1 Loss
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1.0 Goal
• ●Average Goals Conceded: 1.33 Goals

The overall form and home form are completely different. The attacking power they show away from home diminishes at home. They've only scored 1 goal per game at the Velodrome recently. This is a concern for coach De Zerbi.

Last 7 Away Matches

• ●Unbeaten: 6 Matches
• ●Clean Sheets: 43% (3 out of 7 Matches)

Liverpool's away stability is truly impressive. They've only lost once in their last 7 away matches. The clean sheet rate is also high. Since Slot took over, their ability to manage away games has definitely improved.

Marseille

• ●Record: 3 Wins, 0 Draws, 3 Losses
• ●Goals Scored: 11 Goals (1.83 Goals Per Game)
• ●Goals Conceded: 8 Goals (1.33 Goals Per Game)
• ●Goal Difference: +3

Liverpool

• ●Record: 4 Wins, 0 Draws, 2 Losses
• ●Goals Scored: 11 Goals (1.83 Goals Per Game)
• ●Goals Conceded: 8 Goals (1.33 Goals Per Game)
• ●Goal Difference: +3

The numbers are almost identical. Goals scored, goals conceded, and goal difference are the same. The difference lies in the number of wins. This means Liverpool is better at turning close games into victories. They have a 67% win rate in their last 12 Champions League matches.

Marseille's 3-4-3

This is the formation that coach De Zerbi has been favoring recently. Højbjerg and Kondogbia are responsible for build-up in midfield, while Emerson and Ünder use the flanks widely. Greenwood and Paishaung exploit the half-spaces, penetrating around Guirassy.

The key is high pressing, which is the identity of De Zerbi's football. If they lose the ball, they immediately try to recover it with counter-pressing. The question is whether this will work against Liverpool.

Liverpool's 4-2-3-1

Coach Slot's system is based on thorough organization. Mac Allister and Szoboszlai are responsible for both defensive stability and initial build-up. Wirtz acts as a link between the lines, and Gakpo and Gravenberch create movement.

Liverpool's strength is their ability to nullify the opponent's attack, conceding an average of 0.83 goals in their last 6 matches. No matter how many shots Marseille takes, they are confident in stopping them.

1. Marseille's Shots vs. Liverpool's Defensive Organization

This is the key battle of the match. Marseille averages 8.83 shots on target in their last 6 matches, which is a huge number. On the other hand, Liverpool has only conceded 0.83 goals per game during the same period. It's a battle of quantity vs. quality. Even if Marseille creates chances, it won't be easy to score if Van Dijk and Konaté hold firm.

2. Possession Battle

Marseille 62.17% vs. Liverpool 65.67%. Both teams want the ball. Someone has to yield. Will coach De Zerbi concede possession at home, or will coach Slot focus on counter-attacks? The tactical decision will determine the result.

3. Greenwood's Finishing

He is the core of Marseille's attack, with excellent ability to create chances in the half-spaces. Van Dijk needs to read Greenwood's movements well. One mistake could lead to a goal.

Marseille's Two Sides

• ●Unbeaten in 10 of their last 12 matches (all competitions)
• ●18 Wins in their last 30 home matches, 40% of which were by a margin of 2 or more goals.
• ●But 13 Losses in their last 20 Champions League matches
• ●Last 10 Champions League Home Matches: 5 Wins, 5 Losses (Exactly 50/50)

They are strong in the league but inconsistent in the Champions League. In particular, the fact that their home record is 50/50 means Liverpool has a chance.

Liverpool's Consistency

• ●Unbeaten in all of their last 12 matches (all competitions)
• ●Last 6 Away Matches: 50% Win, 50% Draw
• ●9 Wins by a margin of 2 or more goals in their last 23 Champions League matches
• ●67% Win Rate in their last 12 Champions League matches

Liverpool is consistent. In particular, they often dominate games in the Champions League and then widen the gap in the second half.

Olympique Marseille (3-4-3)

• ●GK: Jeronimo Rulli
• ●DF: Pavard - Balerdi - Facundo Medina
• ●MF: Emerson - Højbjerg - Kondogbia - Ünder
• ●FW: Greenwood - Guirassy - Paishaung

Out: Nélson Moapéy, Rubén Blanco

Liverpool (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Alisson
• ●DF: Frimpong - Konaté - Van Dijk - Robertson
• ●MF: Mac Allister - Szoboszlai
• ●AM: Gravenberch - Wirtz - Gakpo
• ●FW: Ekitike

Out: Chiesa, Léoni, Williams, Bajcetic, Isak, Bradley

Liverpool has quite a long list of absentees. Isak's absence is particularly regrettable. Ekitike starts as the lone striker, and his chemistry with Wirtz will be key.

Scenario 1: Liverpool Away Win (36%)

Liverpool controls the tempo by taking possession from the start. They break through Marseille's high pressing with their passing game and score the decisive goal in the second half when fatigue sets in. There is also a high probability of a clean sheet. Predicted score: 0-2.

Scenario 2: Draw (30%)

Both teams maintain defensive organization, creating a tight balance. Marseille takes many shots but is blocked by their lack of finishing, and Liverpool also fails to capitalize on counter-attack opportunities. Predicted score: 1-1 or 0-0.

Scenario 3: Marseille Home Win (25%)

Fueled by the heat of the Velodrome, Marseille pushes hard from the start. Greenwood or Paishaung gets chances in the half-spaces, inducing mistakes from Liverpool's defense.

Marseille 0-2 Liverpool

Under 2.5 goals is expected. Both teams have solid defenses, and Liverpool's away record is particularly good. The fact that Marseille has only scored 1 goal per game at home recently is also important.

Liverpool's 36% win probability may not seem high, but in reality, this match has many favorable conditions for Liverpool: unbeaten run, away stability, and clean sheet ability. Marseille's firepower is threatening, but coach Slot's organization will be superior.

If there is a variable, it is the atmosphere of the Velodrome. The passion of French football fans is truly amazing. If Marseille scores the first goal within the first 10 minutes, the game could change completely.

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