Rayo Vallecano vs. Valencia: Possession Football vs. Counter-attacking Football, Rayo's Draw Formula

La Liga Round 14, Rayo Vallecano hosts Valencia at the Estadio de Vallecas on December 1st. 11th-placed Rayo's unbeaten home streak and 15th-placed Valencia's struggles away from home. Both teams are looking for consistency. Two teams with many draws, will they share the points again this time?

Rayo Vallecano (11th)

• ●13 Matches: 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses
• ●Goals For/Against: 12 goals scored, 13 goals conceded
• ●Goal Difference: -1
• ●Points: 16 points
• ●Average per game: 0.92 goals scored / 1 goal conceded

Valencia (15th)

• ●13 Matches: 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses
• ●Goals For/Against: 12 goals scored, 21 goals conceded
• ●Goal Difference: -9
• ●Points: 13 points
• ●Average per game: 0.92 goals scored / 1.62 goals conceded

Both teams have equally low scoring ability. 0.92 goals per game. However, Valencia concedes far more goals. They are conceding 1.62 goals per game. The defense is the problem.

Rayo's Home Fortress

In the last 6 league games, they have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. They are scoring 1.67 goals per game and conceding 1.17 goals per game. Not a bad flow.

It's even better when looking at all competitions:

• ●Last 12 games overall: 50% win rate (6 wins)
• ●Last 11 games overall: 9 games undefeated (82%)

They are really strong at home:

• ●Last 15 home league games: 12 games undefeated (80%)
• ●Last 10 home league games: 4 clean sheets (40%)

But there is a problem. There are too many draws:

• ●Last 15 home league games: 53% draws (8 games)
• ●Last 13 home league games: 11 draws (85%)

They don't lose, but they don't win either. They lack decisiveness.

Their home shooting stats are good:

• ●Last 3 home games: 19 shots per game (4.33 shots on target)
• ●Possession: 54.67%
• ●Goals conceded: 0.67 goals per game

They dominate the game, but the goals don't come.

Valencia's Away Nightmare

In the last 6 games overall, they have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. They are scoring 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.17 goals per game.

But they are a completely different team away from home:

• ●Last 16 away games overall: 13 games without a win (81%)
• ●Last 10 away games overall: 5 losses (50%)
• ●Last 10 league games: 8 games without a win (80%)
• ●Last 16 league games: 8 losses (50%)

They are really struggling away from home. Wins are rare.

Their shooting stats are also lower than Rayo's:

• ●Last 6 games: 12.33 shots per game (3.83 shots on target)
• ●Possession: 49.67%

They are a style that gives up the ball and aims for counterattacks.

League record in the last 6 games held in Vallecas:

• ●2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss (Rayo standard)

Rayo is undefeated in 5 games against Valencia at home. There were 3 draws, which is a lot. There is a high possibility of a similar result this time.

Rayo's 4-2-3-1

Coach Inigo Perez plays possession football. Ciss and Pedro Diaz dominate the midfield, and De Frutos and Isi attack from the flanks.

They take 19 shots per game, but only 4.33 are on target. Decisiveness is the problem. Aleman is struggling at the forefront.

They dominate the game with 54.67% possession, but they are not converting it into goals. Nteka's absence due to injury has reduced attacking options.

Valencia's 4-2-3-1

Coach Carlos Corberan prefers counter-attacking football. He gives up possession and aims for quick transitions. Danjuma and Beltran pose a threat in counter-attacking situations.

Pepelu orchestrates in the midfield, and Guerra is responsible for ball distribution. Gaya joins the attack from the left.

They play defensively away from home, but they are a team with a counter-attack. It could be dangerous if Rayo's defense falters.

1. Rayo's Finishing

They take 19 shots per game but their scoring ability is low. Aleman and Isi's finishing must come alive. If they score just one goal, the flow of the game can change.

2. Valencia's Counter-attack

It's a strategy of giving up the ball and aiming for counterattacks. Danjuma's speed is key. They must take advantage of the gaps in Rayo's defense as they push up.

3. Draw Trap

Rayo has drawn 53% of their 15 home games, and Valencia has low scoring ability. There is a high possibility of another draw.

analysis Probability:

• ●Draw: 45%
• ●Predicted Score: 1-1

The algorithm predicts a draw with the highest probability. Rayo's draw formula and Valencia's away struggles will lead to a result that shares the points.

Rayo Vallecano (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Batalla
• ●DF: Ratiu, Lejeune, Mendi, Chavarria
• ●MF: Ciss, Pedro Diaz
• ●AM: De Frutos, Isi, Alvaro Garcia
• ●FW: Aleman

⚠️ Out: Randy Nteka (muscle injury)

Valencia (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Agirrezabala
• ●DF: Correia, Tarega, Copete, Gaya
• ●MF: Pepelu, Guerra
• ●AM: Diego Lopez, Almeida, Danjuma
• ●FW: Beltran

⚠️ Out: Eray Comert

A draw is likely. Rayo has failed to win 11 of their 13 home games. Valencia has failed to win 13 of their 16 away games. Both are teams that are difficult to win against.

The predicted score is 1-1. Rayo leads the game with possession, but due to a lack of finishing, they cannot score multiple goals. Valencia scores one goal on the counter-attack and holds on.

For Rayo to win, their finishing must be revived. The ratio of goals scored from 19 shots per game is too low. For Valencia to win, they must increase efficiency in counterattacks. But both are not easy tasks.

A match between two teams aiming for mid-table. In the end, it seems likely that they will share 1 point each. It will be a fierce but low-scoring game.