Valencia and Athletic Club set for a tight Copa del Rey quarter-final

Two teams with very different rhythms collide, one leaning on a strong cup pedigree at Mestalla, the other carrying punchy shot volumes but uneven results. It has the feel of a matchup decided by details rather than dominance.

At Mestalla, Valencia have the edge in the last three home meetings against Athletic with 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss. Those fixtures have usually been decided in narrow moments, where Valencia's left flank and set pieces often tilted the balance.

Given the current profiles, Valencia's compact shape and counter lanes down the wings again look important, while Athletic's direct entries to the box can punish any hesitation around the area.

Valencia: Steady form and home advantage

Valencia have been steady across their last six matches with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The numbers point to balanced football rather than all-out control, yet their last three at home read well at 1 win and 2 draws with 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded.

The recent home sample is encouraging beyond the results. In their last three at Mestalla they averaged 14.33 shots, 3.67 on target and 52.33% possession, a profile that should allow them to share territory and still generate chances. Clean sheets have featured in 42% of their last 12 home cup matches.

Valencia's record in the Copa del Rey is a real pillar here. Across their last 40 in this competition they have won 65% and they are undefeated in 85% of their last 20. They have also posted 15 wins by 2 or more goals in their last 39 in the cup, underlining a habit of putting ties to bed.

Athletic Bilbao: Erratic form but potent shot volume

Athletic Bilbao's recent stretch is more erratic at 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses across six, but they have generated 14.5 total shots and 5 shots on target on average, despite only 43.33% possession. That blend suggests they create enough threat without needing to monopolize the ball.

The broader picture is tougher. Currently winless in 3 straight and winless in 87% of their last 15 away matches, with 50% of their last 12 away ending in defeat. This away weakness is clearly a burden.

Yet the cup lens is kinder. Athletic's cup credentials are credible. They have won 53% of their last 40 Copa del Rey matches, drawn 5 of the last 10 in the competition, and crucially are undefeated in 17 of their last 20. That resilience in elimination football offsets a tougher run in all competitions.

Valencia: Mestalla cup fortress

Valencia's Copa del Rey record is genuinely impressive. 65% wins in their last 40 cup matches, unbeaten in 85% of their last 20. Even more striking: 15 wins by 2+ goals in their last 39 cup ties, demonstrating a habit of closing out matches decisively.

At home, they're even stronger. Clean sheets in 42% of their last 12 home cup matches, with Mestalla serving as a genuine fortress in cup competitions. Averaging 14.33 shots, 3.67 on target, and 52.33% possession at home shows they can control territory while creating sufficient threat.

Athletic Bilbao: Cup resilience despite away struggles

Athletic's cup credentials are solid. 53% wins in their last 40 Copa del Rey matches, 5 draws in their last 10 cup ties, and critically unbeaten in 17 of their last 20. This tournament resilience and mental strength compensates for broader struggles.

Attacking metrics

• ●Goals per game: Valencia 1.5 vs Athletic 1.5
• ●Shots per game: Valencia 14.33 (home) vs Athletic 14.5
• ●Shots on target: Valencia 3.67 (home) vs Athletic 5
• ●Possession: Valencia 52.33% (home) vs Athletic 43.33%

Defensive metrics

• ●Goals conceded per game: Valencia 1.5 (overall), 1.33 (home) vs Athletic 1.5
• ●Clean sheets: Valencia 42% in last 12 home cup matches

Cup records

• ●Copa del Rey win rate: Valencia 65% (last 40) vs Athletic 53% (last 40)
• ●Unbeaten: Valencia 85% of last 20 vs Athletic 17 of last 20

Valencia (all comps): ✅🟡❌✅❌ (3W 1D 2L)
Athletic (all comps): ❌🟡❌🟡✅ (1W 2D 3L)

Home: Valencia 2W 0D 1L

Valencia hold the advantage at Mestalla in recent meetings.

Valencia: Unbeaten in 85% of last 20 Copa matches, 38% of last 39 cup wins by 2+ goals
Athletic: Unbeaten in 17 of last 20 cup matches, but winless in 87% of last 15 away across all competitions

Valencia's strengths: Home dominance and wide play

Valencia's recent home sample is encouraging. Averaging 14.33 shots, 3.67 on target, and 52.33% possession at Mestalla in their last three shows they can control territory while creating chances.

Tactically, Valencia will maintain a compact shape while utilizing counter-attacking routes down the wings, particularly the left flank. José Gayà and Arnaut Danjuma will combine overlapping runs and cutting inside to pressure Athletic's right-sided defense, with Hugo Duro and Lucas Beltrán providing finishing in the box.

Set-pieces are a crucial weapon. Pepelu's delivery accuracy combined with José Copete and Eray Cömert's aerial ability makes corners and free-kicks dangerous. This tactical advantage contributed to Valencia's 2 wins in their last 3 home meetings with Athletic.

The 42% clean sheet rate in their last 12 home cup matches proves defensive solidity. Home crowd pressure and familiar pitch conditions combine to make Valencia difficult opponents, even for quality teams like Athletic.

Athletic's weapons: Shot volume and cup mentality

The contrast is sharp for Athletic. Currently winless in 3 straight across all competitions and winless in 87% of their last 15 away matches, but the cup lens reveals resilience—unbeaten in 17 of their last 20 Copa matches with sufficient shot volume to trouble any defense.

Averaging 14.5 shots and 5 on target per game despite just 43.33% possession shows they create threat without dominating possession. Nico Williams and Álex Berenguer provide width, Oihan Sancet offers central creativity, and Gorka Guruzeta finishes in the box.

Cup mentality is proven. Unbeaten in 17 of their last 20 Copa matches demonstrates tournament resilience, while 5 draws in their last 10 cup ties shows ability to extract results in big matches.

However, away weakness is a clear burden. Winless in 87% of their last 15 away matches, with 50% of their last 12 away ending in defeat, suggests the Mestalla trip won't be easy. Defensive depth is stretched with Yeray Álvarez (doping ban), Beñat Prados (ACL), and Unai Egiluz (ACL) absent, placing more importance on the Paredes-Vivian partnership.

Valencia (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Stole Dimitrievski
• ●DEF: Dimitri Foulquier, José Copete, Eray Cömert, José Gayà
• ●MID: Arnaut Danjuma, Pepelu, Filip Ugrinic, Luis Rioja
• ●FWD: Hugo Duro, Lucas Beltrán

Unavailable: César Tárrega (knee), Julen Agirrezabala (muscle), Eray Cömert (unknown), Mouctar Diakhaby (muscle), Javi Guerra (flu)

Duro-Beltrán strike partnership and Gayà-Danjuma left-sided combination are key.

Athletic Bilbao (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Unai Simón
• ●DEF: Andoni Gorosabel, Dani Vivian, Aitor Paredes, Yuri Berchiche
• ●MID: Mikel Vesga, Mikel Jauregizar, Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet, Álex Berenguer
• ●FWD: Gorka Guruzeta

Unavailable: Yeray Álvarez (doping ban), Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (unknown), Beñat Prados (ACL), Unai Egiluz (ACL)

Paredes-Vivian central defensive axis and Williams-Berenguer wide threats are decisive.

1. Valencia's home dominance versus Athletic's away struggles

Valencia are formidable at Mestalla: 65% win rate in last 40 Copa matches, unbeaten in 85% of their last 20, and 2 wins in their last 3 home meetings with Athletic. Recent home stats—14.33 shots, 52.33% possession—show territorial control.

Athletic struggle away: winless in 87% of their last 15 away matches across all competitions, currently on a 3-match winless streak, with 50% of their last 12 away ending in defeat. This away weakness makes the Mestalla trip daunting.

But cup context shifts the narrative. Athletic's unbeaten run in 17 of their last 20 Copa matches demonstrates tournament mentality and resilience. In knockout football, they're a different proposition.

2. Left-flank attack versus right-sided defense

Valencia's left flank has historically troubled Athletic. Gayà and Danjuma's combination created numerous chances in past Mestalla meetings, and they'll target Andoni Gorosabel's right-sided defense again.

For Athletic, Gorosabel must balance defensive solidity with supporting Nico Williams' attacking threat. If he pushes too high, Gayà-Danjuma counters become dangerous; too defensive, and Williams' attacking impact diminishes.

3. Set-pieces versus shot volume

Valencia are strong from dead balls. Pepelu's delivery combined with Copete and Cömert's aerial prowess makes corners and free-kicks dangerous. Set-pieces played key roles in Valencia's 2 wins from their last 3 home meetings with Athletic.

Athletic must counter with in-play shot volume. Averaging 14.5 shots and 5 on target shows sufficient threat creation. Williams, Sancet, and Berenguer shooting from outside the box can pressure Valencia's defense.

Athletic's stretched defensive depth creates set-piece vulnerability. With multiple first-choice defenders injured, Paredes and Vivian face increased pressure in dead-ball situations.

The data leans toward a tight match. Valencia's strong cup baseline at Mestalla meets an Athletic side that, despite away struggles in all competitions, remains hard to eliminate in this tournament.

Valencia's strengths are clear: 65% win rate in last 40 Copa matches, unbeaten in 85% of their last 20, 2 wins in their last 3 home meetings with Athletic. Home stats—14.33 shots, 52.33% possession—show territorial control, with 42% clean sheet rate in their last 12 home cup matches.

Athletic's challenge is overcoming away weakness: winless in 87% of their last 15 away across all competitions, currently on a 3-match winless streak, 50% of their last 12 away ending in defeat. But cup context changes everything—unbeaten in 17 of their last 20 Copa matches demonstrates tournament mentality.

Athletic's shot volume—14.5 per game, 5 on target—will pressure Valencia's defense. The Williams-Sancet-Berenguer-Guruzeta attacking combination threatens any defense.

The most likely scenario is a 2-2 draw. Valencia score first through set-pieces or left-flank attacks, Athletic equalize with shot volume and resilience, pattern repeats. Both teams averaging 1.5 goals scored and conceded in their last 6 matches supports this scenario.

Extra time or penalties are highly probable. 5 of Athletic's last 10 cup matches ended level, showing big-match point-taking ability. Valencia's 85% unbeaten record in their last 20 Copa matches proves they don't collapse easily.

Final analysis: Valencia 2-2 Athletic Bilbao (Extra time or penalties likely)

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