AC Pisa vs Parma: A Tight Match at the Arena Garibaldi, the Draw Formula

In the Serie A Round 14, AC Pisa hosts Parma at the Arena Garibaldi on December 8th. 18th-placed Pisa (10 points) vs 16th-placed Parma (11 points). Both teams are struggling at the bottom of the table and desperately need a win. However, the possibility of a draw is very high.

Parma (16th)

• ●13 Games: 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses
• ●Goals For/Against: 13 goals scored / 17 goals conceded
• ●Goal Difference: -4
• ●Points: 11 points
• ●Average per game: 1 goal scored / 1.31 goals conceded

AC Pisa (18th)

• ●13 Games: 1 win, 7 draws, 5 losses
• ●Goals For/Against: 10 goals scored / 14 goals conceded
• ●Goal Difference: -4
• ●Points: 10 points
• ●Average per game: 0.77 goals scored / 1.08 goals conceded

Pisa has a lot of draws. 7 draws in 13 games. Only one win. Parma also has 5 draws.

Parma's Away Struggles

In the recent 6 league games, they recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses. They scored 1 goal and conceded 1.67 goals per game. Their defense is unstable.

Their away record is really bad:

• ●Recent 20 away league games: 16 games without a win (80%)

Their possession is low at an average of 38%. They lack control of the game.

AC Pisa's Draw Formula

In the recent 6 league games, they recorded 1 win, 4 draws, and 1 loss. They scored 1.17 goals and conceded 1.33 goals per game.

Home Record:

• ●Recent 3 home games: 0.33 goals scored / 0.67 goals conceded

Their scoring ability is really low. But their defense is decent.

Long-term Record:

• ●Recent 12 league games: 50% draw rate (6 games)
• ●Recent 7 league games: 6 games undefeated (86%)
• ●Recent 7 home games: 6 games without a win (86%)

They have many undefeated games, but no wins. They are a team specialized in draws.

Their possession is also low at an average of 38%.

The most recent game (February):

• ●3-2 Parma win (Parma home)

Del Prato scored a dramatic winning goal in the 95th minute. It was a thriller with 5 goals.

Parma was more efficient with 9 shots (shots on target) vs Pisa's 3 shots (shots on target). Pisa had more possession at 53%, but Parma dominated with 58 dangerous attacks vs 27.

AC Pisa's 3-5-2

Filippo Inzaghi's team specializes in draws. N'Zola and Meisters are aiming to score at the forefront, and Touré and Marin support from the flanks.

Caracciolo and Canestrelli lead the defense. At home, they concede 0.67 goals per game, so their defense is decent, but their scoring ability is at rock bottom with 0.33 goals.

Injured: Albiol (suspended), Semper (illness), Stengs, Bural, De Vitis

Parma's 3-5-2

Fabio Pecchia's team also lacks wins. Cutrone and Pellegrino are in charge of finishing at the forefront, and Bernabé controls the midfield.

Del Prato and Valenti lead the defense. However, the defense is unstable, conceding 1.67 goals per game.

Injured: Frigan (ACL tear), Suzuki, Circati, Cremaschi (National Team), Ndiaye

1. Pisa's Draw DNA

6 out of the recent 12 league games were draws. They haven't won 6 out of the recent 7 games, but they are also undefeated in 6 games. Their specialty is drawing.

2. Parma's Away Slump

They haven't won 16 out of 20 away games. It seems difficult for Parma to win at Pisa's home.

3. Lack of Scoring Ability

Pisa scores 0.33 goals per game at home, and Parma scores 1 goal per game. Both teams lack scoring ability. The possibility of a low-scoring draw is high.

analysis Probability:

• ●Draw: 45%
• ●Predicted Score: 1-1

The algorithm is predicting a draw. When Pisa's draw formula (50%) and Parma's away slump (80% without a win) meet, a draw is very likely.

AC Pisa (3-5-2)

• ●GK: Scuffet
• ●DF: Calabresi, Caracciolo, Canestrelli
• ●MF: Touré, Aebischer, Piccinini, Marin, Angori
• ●FW: N'Zola, Meisters

⚠️ Out: Raúl Albiol (suspended), Adrian Semper (illness), Stengs, Bural, De Vitis

Parma (3-5-2)

• ●GK: Corvi
• ●DF: Del Prato, Trabucchi, Valenti
• ●MF: Bricici, Bernabé, Keita, Soerensen, Løvik
• ●FW: Cutrone, Pellegrino

⚠️ Out: Frigan (ACL tear), Suzuki, Circati, Cremaschi (National Team), Ndiaye

A very tight game is expected. Pisa has 7 draws in 13 games, and Parma hasn't won 16 out of 20 away games. The possibility of a draw is very high.

The predicted score is a 1-1 draw. Both teams lack scoring ability, and Pisa is a team specialized in draws. Possession is low for both teams at 38%, so the midfield battle will be fierce, but the finishing will be lacking.

There were 5 goals in the last game, but it will be different this time. Pisa is only scoring 0.33 goals per game at home. A low-scoring draw is likely.

It's a match between bottom-ranked teams, so it's very cautious. It might be better for both teams to draw rather than lose. In particular, Pisa seems to be using a strategy of accumulating points with draws.

The possibility of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw is high. Both teams have weak attacks, but their defenses are decent.