Alaves vs Villarreal: La Liga Match Preview

Alaves hosts Villarreal in a La Liga season opener on August 29 at 04:30 KST. Alaves enters with strong home credentials from last season (1W-0D) and commands a significant power index advantage at 145 versus Villarreal's 76—a 69-point gap. Villarreal, conversely, struggled in away fixtures last season, recording only draws (0W-2D) with no wins. The disparity in home-away form and squad strength suggests this matchup will be shaped by territorial advantage and competitive balance.

Recent Form

Alaves

Stat	Value
Last 10	4W 3D 3L
Goals / Conceded	16 / 14

Villarreal

Stat	Value
Last 10	4W 4D 2L
Goals / Conceded	22 / 15
Streak	2 draws

La Liga Season Record

	Alaves (Home)	Villarreal (Away)
W-D-L	1-0-0	0-2-0
Win Rate	100%	0%

Key Stats

Based on last 10 matches

Metric	Alaves	Villarreal
Goals/Game	1.6	2.2
Conceded/Game	1.4	1.5
Over 2.5	60%	70%
BTTS	70%	90%
Clean Sheet	30%	0%

Head-to-Head

Alaves Wins	Draws	Villarreal Wins	Total
8	3	7	18

Recent Meetings

D Alaves 1 - 1 Villarreal (2026-03-13)

L Alaves 1 - 3 Villarreal (2026-01-10)

W Alaves 1 - 0 Villarreal (2025-03-08)

H2H record: evenly matched (8W 3D 7L)

Tactical Points

Alaves demonstrates clear home-ground strength. Last season, they posted a perfect 1W-0D record at home (100% win rate) while maintaining a stable goal differential: 1.6 goals scored per match versus 1.4 conceded. A power index of 145—69 points ahead of Villarreal's 76—indicates superiority in both individual quality and tactical organization.

Villarreal, while posting 2.2 goals per match (higher than Alaves' 1.6), has zero away victories on record (0W-2D), with only two goalless draws. Conceding 1.5 goals per match is comparable to Alaves, suggesting their away struggles stem not from defensive fragility but from converting attacking opportunities into wins. The head-to-head record (Alaves 8W, Villarreal 7W across 18 matches) is close, yet the combination of home advantage and the current power index gap tilts territorial and competitive balance toward the hosts.

Key Factors

1. Power diff: 69pts

2. Prob edge: 30.6%

3. Home 1st goal win: 81%

TrendSoccer Prediction

	Probability
Alaves	████████░░░░░░░░ 50%
Draw	███░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 19%
Villarreal	█████░░░░░░░░░░░ 32%

Detail	Analysis
Prediction	Home Win
Grade	PICK
Odds	3.09 / 3.48 / 2.26
Power Index	Alaves 145 vs Villarreal 76
Pattern	1-3-2 (7218 matches)

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Alaves vs Villarreal | La Liga Tactical Breakdown