Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen: Champions League Match Preview

Arsenal will face Bayer Leverkusen on March 18 at 05:00 (KST) in a Champions League Round of 16 encounter. Arsenal enters the match in excellent form, posting a 4-1-0 record over their last five games and maintaining a strong 79% home win rate (11W-2D-1L). In contrast, Leverkusen is struggling with 1-3-1 over the same period and managing only 46% away performance (6W-3D-4L). A power differential of 61 points underscores the pronounced quality gap between the two sides heading into this fixture.

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Recent Form

Arsenal

Stat	Value
Last 10	6W 3D 1L
Goals / Conceded	21 / 8
Streak	4-game win streak

Bayer Leverkusen

Stat	Value
Last 10	4W 4D 2L
Goals / Conceded	15 / 9
Streak	2 draws

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Champions League Season Record

	Arsenal (Home)	Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
W-D-L	11-2-1	6-3-4
Win Rate	79%	46%

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Key Stats

Based on last 10 matches

Metric	Arsenal	Bayer Leverkusen
Goals/Game	2.1	1.5
Conceded/Game	0.8	0.9
Over 2.5	60%	30%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean Sheet	50%	30%

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Head-to-Head

Arsenal Wins	Draws	Bayer Leverkusen Wins	Total
1	1	0	2

Recent Meetings

무 Arsenal 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen (2026-03-11)

승 Arsenal 4 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen (2024-08-07)

역대 전적: Arsenal 우세 (1승 1무 0패)

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TrendSoccer Analysis

	Probability
Arsenal	███████████░░░░░ 69%
Draw	███░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 16%
Bayer Leverkusen	██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 15%

Detail	Analysis
analysis	Home Win
Grade	GOOD
Odds	1.3 / 5.63 / 9.67
Power Index	Arsenal 211 vs Bayer Leverkusen 150

Tactical Points

Arsenal's home dominance is statistically evident. An 11-2-1 home record translates to a 79% win percentage, while averaging 2.1 goals per match indicates elite attacking output. Defensive stability is also evident, conceding just 0.8 goals per game. Leverkusen struggles on the road, posting 6-3-4 (46%), and has failed to escape a downturn, winning just once in their last five matches. Their 0.9 goals conceded per game exceeds Arsenal's by 0.1, and their 1.5 goals-per-match scoring rate falls below standard. Head-to-head records favour Arsenal (1W-1D-0L), and both current form and environmental factors align in Arsenal's favour.

Key Factors

1. Arsenal's Home First-Goal Conversion Rate Arsenal records a 92% win rate when scoring first at home. Given their 2.1 goals-per-match output and the 83% home first-goal win probability, early territorial control and breakthrough chances appear highly probable. This contrasts sharply with Leverkusen's 0% away comeback record.

2. Leverkusen's Inconsistent Away Defence Conceding 0.9 goals per match—exceeding Arsenal's 0.8—reflects defensive fragility on the road. Their 1-3-1 record over five games and four defeats away (46% win rate) demonstrate vulnerability against top-tier opposition in away fixtures, raising question marks over sustained defensive structure.

3. Power Differential Conversion Likelihood A 61-point power gap, derived from 161+ game datasets, quantifies a 54.7% probability edge. This is not conjecture but evidence-based measurement across a large sample. When combined with home advantage and Arsenal's current 4-game winning streak, the gap has strong potential to manifest on the pitch.

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Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen: Key Stats & Match Preview