Atalanta vs Inter Milan: Defend the Top Spot

It's a Serie A big match. League leaders Inter Milan are on the road against 9th-placed Atalanta. Atalanta is formidable at home, and Inter Milan is dominating the league. This match takes place on December 28th at Gewiss Stadium. Can Atalanta stop Inter Milan's dominance?

Atalanta (9th)

• ●Season Record: 5 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses (16 matches)
• ●Goals: 20 goals / Conceded: 18 goals (Goal Difference +2)
• ●Last 6 matches: 5 wins (Dominant!)
• ●Average Goals Scored: 2 goals / Average Goals Conceded: Under 1 goal
• ●Last 3 Home Matches: 3 wins (Undefeated!)
• ●Home Average Goals Scored: 2.67 goals / Home Average Goals Conceded: 0.67 goals
• ●Last 15 Home Matches: 87% Undefeated
• ●Possession: Over 59%

Atalanta is flying high. They have 5 wins in their last 6 matches. They are even more fearsome at home. They've won all 3 of their recent home matches, scoring 2.67 goals and conceding only 0.67 goals per game. They dominate matches with 59% possession. Their record of being undefeated in 87% of their last 15 matches at Gewiss Stadium is also impressive.

Inter Milan (1st)

• ●Season Record: 11 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses (15 matches)
• ●Goals: 34 goals / Conceded: 14 goals (Goal Difference +20)
• ●Last 6 matches: 4 wins / Average Goals Scored: 2.33 goals
• ●Last 6 matches Undefeated: 4 matches
• ●Last 10 Away Matches: 8 matches Undefeated (80%)
• ●Last 3 Away Matches Goals Conceded: 0.67 goals
• ●Last 20 matches: 16 matches Undefeated (80%)
• ●Last 15 League Matches: 11 wins
• ●Last 15 Away Matches: 60% Win Rate
• ●Last 30 Away Matches Clean Sheet: 43%

Inter Milan is dominating the league. They have 11 wins in 15 matches, with no draws. They either win or lose. A goal difference of +20 means they are ahead by 1.3 goals per game. They are strong on the road too. They are undefeated in 8 of their last 10 away matches, and they've only conceded 0.67 goals in their last 3 away matches.

When they met in Bergamo this March, Inter Milan won 2-0.

• ●Possession: 50% vs 50% (Even)
• ●Shots: Atalanta 18 vs Inter Milan 14
• ●Shots on Target: Inter Milan 5
• ●Dangerous Attacks: Inter Milan 53 vs Atalanta 42
• ●54th minute: Carlos Augusto opening goal
• ●87th minute: Lautaro Martinez clinching goal

Atalanta had more shots, but Inter Milan finished efficiently. It's important that Inter Milan had 53 dangerous attacks compared to Atalanta's 42. They created more chances and converted them into goals.

In 4 out of the last 5 matches, Inter Milan won by a margin of 2 goals or more. They are a really difficult opponent from Atalanta's perspective.

Atalanta's Home Counterattack

Gian Piero Gasperini's Atalanta is fearsome at home. They are likely to play aggressively with a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3 formation.

Scamacca will be the lone striker, supported by De Ketelaere and Maldini behind him. Ederson and Musa will be in charge of the midfield, and Zappacosta will join the attack as a right wing-back.

The problem is that they have many injured players. Lookman, Bellanova, Kolasinac, Soppy, Djimsiti, Bakker are all out. The absence of key striker Lookman is a huge loss. Their attacking options are limited, making it even more difficult to penetrate Inter Milan's defense.

Inter Milan's Away Domination

Simone Inzaghi's Inter Milan is strong even on the road. They are likely to play with a 3-5-2 formation.

Lautaro and Thuram form the two-top. This combination is the strongest in Serie A. Barella acts as the engine in midfield, and Zielinski provides creative passes. Carlos Augusto joins the attack as a left wing-back, and he scored in the last match.

The defense is also solid. Akanji and Bastoni guard the center, and Sommer is in charge of the goal. They have a clean sheet in 43% of their last 30 away matches. They can sufficiently block Atalanta's attack.

1. Lautaro-Thuram vs Atalanta Defense

They are the strongest two-top in Serie A. Lautaro scored in the last match, and Thuram's mobility troubles any defense. Hien and Kolasinac have to stop these two, but it won't be easy. De Roon may have to drop down as a defensive midfielder to provide cover.

2. Impact of Lookman's Absence

This is Atalanta's biggest weakness. If Lookman is out, their attacking creativity is greatly reduced. De Ketelaere and Maldini have to fill that void, but it's difficult for them to be as threatening as Lookman. It has become a lot easier for the Inter Milan defense.

3. Midfield Domination Battle

Ederson and Musa face off against Barella and Zielinski. Whoever holds the ball longer will determine the flow of the match. Atalanta is a team that dominates matches with 59% possession, but Inter Milan is also strong in ball possession. A fierce midfield battle is expected.

Atalanta Home Trends

• ●Last 15 Home Matches: 87% Undefeated
• ●Last 10 Home Matches Clean Sheet: 40%
• ●But vs Inter Milan Last 5 Home Matches: 3 losses
• ●vs Inter Milan Last 5 Matches: 4 matches with 2 goal difference loss or greater

Inter Milan Trends

• ●Last 20 matches: 80% Undefeated (16 matches)
• ●Last 15 League Matches: 11 wins (73%)
• ●Last 15 Away Matches: 60% Win Rate (9 wins)
• ●Last 30 Away Matches Clean Sheet: 43% (13 matches)
• ●Last 37 Away Matches: 35% Win by 2 or more goals
• ●Last 15 matches: 6 matches with 2 goal difference win or greater

The numbers are pointing towards Inter Milan. Atalanta is strong at home, but they've lost 3 out of 5 matches against Inter Milan. Moreover, they've lost by 2 goals or more in 4 of those matches. Inter Milan is completely dominating Atalanta.

Atalanta Out (Many!)

• ●Bellanova, Kolasinac, Soppy, Djimsiti, Lookman, Bakker

Inter Milan Out

• ●Dumfries, Acerbi, Di Gennaro

Atalanta has 6 players out. The absence of Lookman is especially critical. Inter Milan is relatively relaxed with only 3 players out. They can field their entire core lineup.

Atalanta (3-4-2-1)

• ●GK: Carnesecchi
• ●DF: Hien, De Roon, Kolasinac
• ●MF: Zappacosta, Ederson, Musa, Bernasconi
• ●CAM: De Ketelaere, Maldini
• ●FW: Scamacca

Inter Milan (3-5-2)

• ●GK: Sommer
• ●DF: Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni
• ●MF: Carlos Augusto, Barella, Zielinski, Frattesi, Dimarco
• ●FW: Lautaro, Thuram

Predicted Score: Atalanta 1-2 Inter Milan

Inter Milan win. Probability is 51%.

Inter Milan is likely to score the opening goal in the first half. Lautaro or Thuram will break through Atalanta's defense. Atalanta is also a team that scores 2.67 goals per game at home, so they can score at least one goal. Scamacca can score from set pieces or counterattacks.

But the most realistic scenario is that Inter Milan will score an additional goal in the second half and finish 2-1. Carlos Augusto may play a crucial role once again. He also scored in the last match.

There is a decent chance of Over 2.5 goals. Both teams have good attacking power. Inter Milan scores 2.33 goals per game, and Atalanta scores 2.67 goals per game at home.

It will be a difficult match for Atalanta fans. They've lost by 2 goals or more in 4 out of 5 matches in their head-to-head record. With Lookman also out, it seems really difficult to penetrate Inter Milan's defense. It seems like Inter Milan will solidify their top spot in this match.

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