Cagliari vs Milan: Breaking Down the Fortress of Sardinia

14th place meets 2nd place. A difference of 12 positions in the standings. Milan cannot afford to slip in the Scudetto race, while Cagliari are clinging on, just 5 points above the relegation zone. Will Milan dominate this match at the Sardegna Arena on January 2nd?

Cagliari (14th)

• ●Season Record: 5 points above the relegation zone
• ●Goals: 1.12 goals per game / Conceded: 1.41 goals per game
• ●Last 3 Home Games: 1 win, 2 draws (unbeaten)
• ●Average Goals Scored at Home: 2 goals / Average Goals Conceded at Home: 1.67 goals
• ●Last 6 Home Games: 5 games without a win (83%)
• ●Last 6 Serie A Home Games: 83% without a win
• ●Last 12 Serie A Games: 83% without a win

Cagliari are having a tough season. They haven't won 5 of their last 6 home games. They are only 5 points away from the relegation zone. However, they are unbeaten in their last 3 home games. They are scoring 2 goals per game. They are not a completely helpless team.

AC Milan (2nd)

• ●Season Record: 10 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss (16 games)
• ●Goals: 1.69 goals per game / Conceded: Less than 1 goal per game
• ●Last 20 Serie A Games: 18 games unbeaten (90%)
• ●Last 15 Away Games: 8 wins (53%)
• ●Last 15 Away Games Clean Sheets: Almost 50%
• ●Last 20 Away Games: 17 games unbeaten (85%)

Milan are flying high. They are unbeaten in 18 of their last 20 games. They are also strong away from home. They have won 8 out of 15 games and kept a clean sheet in almost half of them. With Maignan in goal, their defense is solid, conceding less than 1 goal per game.

When they met in January this year, it ended in a 1-1 draw.

• ●Possession: Milan 68% vs Cagliari 32%
• ●Shots: Milan 24 vs Cagliari 6
• ●Shots on Target: Milan 11
• ●Dangerous Attacks: Milan 85 vs Cagliari 19
• ●Goal Scorers: Morata (Milan), Zortea (Cagliari)

Milan completely dominated but drew. They had 24 shots and 11 shots on target but only scored 1 goal. Cagliari defended solidly. A similar pattern could emerge this time.

Cagliari's Last 6 Home Games vs Milan: Milan 4 wins / Wins by 2 or more goals 50%

Cagliari's Home Resistance

Coach Fabio Pisacane will have a lot to think about. They haven't won 5 of their last 6 home games. They are likely to set up defensively in a 3-5-2 formation.

Borrelli and Esposito will form the two-man attack. Gaetano needs to provide creative passes from the center, while Adopo and Deiola distribute the ball.

The problem is that there are too many injuries. Rodriguez, Pavoletti, PoroLuosso, Belotti, Luvumbo, Luvumbo, Lykogiannis, Falex, Mina are all out. 8 players are missing. The squad is completely depleted.

They need to focus on defense like in the last game. Even if they concede possession to below 30%, they have to defend tightly. Since Milan only scored 1 goal even with 24 shots, they could draw again.

Milan's Away Domination

Massimiliano Allegri's Milan are strong even away from home. They are likely to field a 3-5-2 formation.

Nkunku and Pulisic will form the two-man attack. Modric will control the game in midfield, with Loftus-Cheek and Rabiot distributing the ball. Saelemaekers will join the attack as a right wing-back.

They have won 8 out of 15 away games and kept a clean sheet in almost half of them. If Maignan and Tomori are in charge of the defense, they can stop Cagliari's attack.

It's a shame that Gabbia and Jimenez are out, but they can maintain their core lineup.

1. Cagliari's Defensive Concentration

In the last game, Milan shot 24 times but only scored 1 goal. If Cagliari concentrate for 90 minutes, they can draw again. Luperto and Obert must hold firm in the center. They must not lose focus from set-pieces.

2. Milan's Finishing

This is Milan's biggest concern. They had 11 shots on target in the last game but only scored 1 goal. Nkunku and Pulisic must take advantage of their chances. If their finishing has improved, it could be different this time.

3. Cagliari's Injury Crisis

8 players are missing. The squad is completely depleted. It may be difficult to last 90 minutes. If their stamina drops in the second half, Milan will push forward.

Cagliari Home Trends

• ●Last 6 Home Games: 83% without a win (5 games)
• ●Last 6 Serie A Home Games: 83% without a win
• ●Last 12 Serie A Games: 83% without a win
• ●vs Milan Last 6 Home Games: 4 losses
• ●vs Milan Losses by 2 or More Goals: 50%
• ●But Recent 8 Games vs Milan: 50% Draw

Milan Trends

• ●Last 20 Serie A Games: 90% unbeaten (18 games)
• ●Last 15 Away Games: 53% Win Rate (8 wins)
• ●Last 20 Away Games: 85% unbeaten (17 games)
• ●Away Clean Sheets: Almost 50%

Milan are overwhelmingly favored. They are unbeaten in 18 of their last 20 games, and they have won 4 of their last 6 home games against Cagliari. However, it should also be remembered that half of their recent 8 games have ended in a draw.

Cagliari Out (Serious!)

• ●Rodriguez, Pavoletti, PoroLuosso, Belotti, Luvumbo, Lykogiannis, Falex, Mina

Milan Out

• ●Gabbia, Jimenez

Cagliari have 8 players out. In particular, the absence of Belotti and Luvumbo is a major blow to their attack. Milan are relatively relaxed with only 2 players out.

Cagliari (3-5-2)

• ●GK: Caprile
• ●DF: Zappa, Luperto, Obert
• ●MF: Paleschi, Adopo, Deiola, Gaetano, Kavour
• ●FW: Borrelli, Esposito

Milan (3-5-2)

• ●GK: Maignan
• ●DF: Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic
• ●MF: Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi
• ●FW: Nkunku, Pulisic

Predicted Score: Cagliari 0-2 Milan

Milan to win. The probability is 63%.

Milan will dominate the game from the first half. They will take more than 60% possession and put pressure on Cagliari's defense. They will take a lot of shots like in the last game.

Cagliari have 8 players out, so it seems difficult to hold out as much as in the last game. If their stamina drops in the second half, Milan will break through. Nkunku or Pulisic will play a decisive role.

There is also a possibility of Under 2.5 goals. Milan's defense is good at keeping clean sheets away from home. A 2-0 victory is the most realistic scenario.

It will be a tough game for Cagliari fans. There are too many injuries and Milan are too strong. Scoring even one goal would be meaningful.

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