Cremonese vs Napoli: A Challenge Against a Giant

12th place meets 3rd place. A difference of 9 positions in the standings. Napoli cannot afford to back down in the Scudetto race, while Cremonese aims for a surprise upset against a giant at home. This match, held on December 28th at the Stadio Giovanni Zini, can Cremonese overcome Napoli's momentum?

Cremonese (12th)

• ●Season Record: 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses (16 matches)
• ●Goals: 18 goals / Goals Against: 18 goals (Goal Difference: 0)
• ●Average per Game: 1.13 goals scored / 1.13 goals conceded
• ●Last 6 Matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1 goal / Average Goals Conceded: 1 goal
• ●Recent 3 Home Matches: 1 win / Average Home Goals Scored: 1.33 goals / Average Home Goals Conceded: 1.67 goals
• ●Recent 40 Home Matches: 32 undefeated matches (80%)
• ●Recent 6 Home Matches: 5 matches without a win

Cremonese is a peculiar team. They are undefeated in 32 out of 40 home matches, but they haven't won 5 out of their last 6 matches. They are a team with a perfectly balanced goal difference, with 18 goals scored and 18 goals conceded. They are not flashy, but they consistently endure.

Napoli (3rd)

• ●Season Record: 10 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses (15 matches)
• ●Goals: 1.47 goals per game / Goals Against: 0.87 goals per game / Goal Difference: +9
• ●Last 6 Matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1 goal / Average Goals Conceded: 0.83 goals
• ●Recent 40 Matches: 80% undefeated
• ●Recent 20 Serie A Matches: 16 undefeated matches
• ●Recent 30 Away Matches: 20 wins (67%)
• ●Recent 32 Away Matches Clean Sheets: 41%
• ●Away Possession: 57%

Napoli is formidable. They are undefeated in 16 out of their last 20 Serie A matches. They are strong away from home as well. 20 wins out of 30 matches, and a clean sheet rate of 41%. They dominate the game with 57% possession and score efficiently. They only concede 0.87 goals per game.

When they met in February 2023, Napoli won decisively 3-0.

• ●21st minute: Kvaratskhelia opening goal
• ●65th minute: Osimhen additional goal
• ●79th minute: Elmas clinching goal

It was a match completely dominated by Napoli. They suppressed Cremonese by dominating possession and cutting off their attacking opportunities. Napoli has won by a margin of 2 goals or more in 2 out of their last 3 matches. Cremonese views them as a nightmarish opponent.

Cremonese's Home Resistance

Coach Giovanni Stroppa will have a lot on his mind, as they haven't won 5 out of their last 6 home matches. They are likely to play defensively in a 3-5-2 formation.

Bardi and Bonaiuto will form the two-man attack. It's amazing that Bardi is still playing, isn't it? He's 38 years old but still sharp. In midfield, Payer and Vandeputte will distribute the ball, while Pezzella and Barbie will be wing-backs responsible for the flanks.

The problem is that there are many injured midfielders. Bondo, Sarmiento, Collocolo, and Grassi are all out. Their bench options are limited, so they may lose out in the physical battle in the second half.

Napoli's Away Domination

Coach Antonio Conte's Napoli is strong even away from home. They are likely to play offensively in a 3-4-3 formation.

Haaland will play as the lone striker, supported by Neres and Lang on the flanks. In midfield, Lobotka and McTominay will distribute the ball. Di Lorenzo will advance as the right wing-back to contribute to the attack.

Napoli's strength is their balance. They score 1.47 goals per game while conceding only 0.87 goals. Both their attack and defense are top-tier in the league. They dominate the game with 57% possession, tiring out their opponents.

It's unfortunate that Anguissa and De Bruyne are out, but they can maintain their core lineup.

1. Napoli's Possession Domination

Napoli holds the ball for 57% of the time. For Cremonese to withstand, they must concede possession and focus on defense. The problem is that if they only defend for 90 minutes, their stamina will not hold up, especially with many injured midfielders and limited bench options.

2. Bardi vs Napoli's Defense

Bardi is 38 years old but still a threat. His movement and finishing, born from experience, are alive. Ramani and Buongiorno must stop Bardi, but the veteran's cunningness can trouble Napoli's defense. For Cremonese to score, Bardi must come alive.

3. Focus on Set Pieces

It's difficult for Cremonese to score from open play, as Napoli's defense is very solid. The only opportunity is from set pieces. Baskirotto and Ceccerini must target aerial balls from corners or free kicks. Napoli has only kept a clean sheet in 41% of their 32 away matches, so they can concede one goal.

Cremonese Home Trends

• ●Recent 40 Home Matches: 32 undefeated matches (80%)
• ●Recent 15 Home Matches Clean Sheets: 6 times (40%)
• ●Recent 12 Home Matches: 50% draws
• ●But Recent 6 Home Matches: 5 matches without a win
• ●vs Napoli Recent 3 Matches: 2 losses (both by a margin of 2 goals or more)

Napoli Trends

• ●Recent 40 Matches: 80% undefeated
• ●Recent 20 Serie A Matches: 16 undefeated matches (80%)
• ●Recent 30 Away Matches: 20 wins (67%)
• ●Recent 32 Away Matches Clean Sheets: 41%
• ●Recent 40 Matches: 21 wins (53%)

The numbers point to Napoli. They have a 67% win rate away from home, and 16 out of 20 Serie A matches are undefeated. Cremonese is a team that endures well at home, but it seems difficult against Napoli.

Cremonese Out

• ●Bondo, Sarmiento, Collocolo, Grassi (injured)

Napoli Out

• ●Gutierrez, Anguissa, De Bruyne

Cremonese is missing 4 midfielders. Their midfield operation is limited, so they may lose out in the physical battle in the second half. Napoli is also missing Anguissa and De Bruyne, but they can maintain their core lineup.

Cremonese (3-5-2)

• ●GK: Audero
• ●DF: Terracciano, Baskirotto, Ceccerini
• ●MF: Barbieri, Payer, Vandeputte, Floriani Mussolini, Pezzella
• ●FW: Bonaiuto, Bardi

Napoli (3-4-3)

• ●GK: Milinkovic-Savic
• ●DF: Beukema, Ramani, Buongiorno
• ●MF: Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Olivera
• ●FW: Neres, Haaland, Lang

Predicted Score: Cremonese 1-2 Napoli

Napoli wins. The probability is 53%.

Napoli is likely to score the opening goal in the first half. Haaland or Neres will break through Cremonese's defense. Cremonese can also create one goal through Bardi. There may be opportunities from set pieces or counterattacks.

However, the most realistic scenario is that Napoli scores an additional goal in the second half and the game ends 2-1. Cremonese's injured midfielders mean their stamina will drop in the second half, and spaces will open up.

There is also a decent chance of Over 2.5 goals. Napoli scores 1.47 goals per game, and Cremonese's home defense concedes 1.67 goals per game.

It seems like it will be a difficult match for Cremonese fans. They have lost 2 out of their last 3 matches against their opponent by a margin of 2 goals or more. It will be meaningful for them to score at least one goal and create a lively atmosphere.

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