Crystal Palace vs Fulham: A Dramatic Twist in the New Year's London Derby

They are winless in 5 straight matches. Crystal Palace is having a tough time. But they won 2-1 away against Fulham a month ago. On January 1st, New Year's Day, at Selhurst Park, can Palace defeat Fulham once again?

Crystal Palace (9th)

• ●Season Record: 7 Wins (18 matches) / Goal Difference: +1
• ●Recent 5 Matches: Winless (0 wins!)
• ●Average Goals Scored in Recent 6 Matches: 1.17 goals / Average Goals Conceded: 1.83 goals
• ●Recent 3 Home Matches: Winless / Average Goals Conceded at Home: 2 goals
• ●Recent 25 Home Matches: Undefeated in 20 Matches (80%)
• ●Recent 15 League Home Matches: Undefeated in 12 Matches

Palace is winless in 5 straight matches. Their scoring ability has diminished. They are only scoring 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.83 goals. They haven't won in their recent 3 home matches either. However, in the long term, they are undefeated in 80% of their 25 home matches. It's worth believing in the strength of Selhurst Park.

Fulham (10th)

• ●Season Record: 8 Wins (18 matches) / Goal Difference: -1
• ●Recent 6 Matches: 3 Wins 0 Draws 3 Losses (Rollercoaster)
• ●Average Goals Scored: 1.83 goals / Average Goals Conceded: 1.83 goals
• ●Recent 6 Away Matches: 3 Wins
• ●Recent 20 Away Matches: 50% Loss Rate (10 losses)
• ●Recent 10 League Home Matches Clean Sheets: 4 Times

Fulham is on a rollercoaster. They definitely win when they win, and they definitely lose when they lose. They have 3 wins and 3 losses in their recent 6 matches. It's similar away from home. They secured 3 wins in 6 matches, but overall, half of their 20 matches have resulted in losses. The fact that they score and concede 1.83 goals each perfectly illustrates the characteristics of this team.

When they met at Craven Cottage a month ago, Palace came back to win 2-1.

• ●Possession: Fulham 63% vs Palace 37%
• ●Shots: Palace 11 (On Target 5) vs Fulham (On Target 4)
• ●Scorers: Nketiah (Opening Goal), Guehi (Winning Goal)

Fulham dominated the game with 63% possession but lost. Palace was efficient on the counter-attack. They led 5 to 4 in shots on target and capitalized on their chances. Guehi scored the winning goal late in the second half. A similar development could occur this time.

Head-to-Head Record in Recent 5 Matches: Palace 3 Wins / Wins by a margin of 2 goals or more 2 Times

Palace's Home Counterattack

Oliver Glasner will have many concerns. Because they are winless in 5 straight matches. They are likely to play in a 3-4-2-1 formation.

Mateta and Nketiah will play up front, with Pino supporting from the flanks. Kamada needs to distribute creative passes from midfield. Wharton needs to block Fulham's attacks as a defensive midfielder.

There are injuries. Muñoz, Sar, and Kporha are out. Sar's absence is a blow to the team's flank attack power. But because Pino is there, he can replace him.

They need to play for a win through counterattacks like they did a month ago. Even if they concede possession, efficiently capitalizing on chances is key.

Fulham's Away Challenge

Marco Silva will also be aiming for revenge. Because they lost at home a month ago. They are likely to play aggressively in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Jiménez will play as the lone striker, with Smith Rowe and Wilson moving on the flanks. Berge and Lukić will be responsible for the midfield, and Tete and Robinson will join the attack as full-backs.

The problem is that there are many injuries. Bassey, Chukwueze, and Iwobi are on international duty, and Muniz, Kevin, and Diop are out due to injuries. 6 players are absent. Defensive options are limited, so Cuenca will inevitably be urgently deployed.

1. Palace's Counter-Attack Efficiency

Counterattacks are key like a month ago. They won with 37% possession. Mateta and Nketiah need to capitalize on opportunities during the fast transition. They need to target the moment when Fulham's defensive line moves up high. Pino's speed can play a decisive role.

2. Fulham's Defensive Instability

Fulham has 6 players out. The defensive line will inevitably be hastily assembled. Andersen and Cuenca need to protect the center, but it is questionable whether they will be in sync. Palace can aim for a goal from a set piece. Guehi's height is threatening.

3. Jiménez vs Palace Defense

Jiménez is the core of Fulham's attack. How the experienced striker moves against Lacroix and Guehi is key. The battle in aerial duels can determine the outcome. If Jiménez scores a goal, Fulham will be at an advantage, and if the Palace defense blocks him, counterattack opportunities will open up.

Palace Home Trends

• ●Recent 25 Home Matches: 80% Undefeated (20 matches)
• ●Recent 15 League Home Matches: 80% Undefeated (12 matches)
• ●But Recent 5 Matches: Winless
• ●vs Fulham Recent 5 Matches: 3 Wins
• ●vs Fulham Wins by a margin of 2 goals or more: 2 Times

Fulham Away Trends

• ●Recent 6 Away Matches: 3 Wins
• ●Recent 20 Away Matches: 10 Wins 10 Losses (50% Loss Rate)
• ●vs Palace Selhurst Wins by a margin of 2 goals or more: 2 Times

Palace has been winless in their recent 5 matches, but they have won 3 out of 5 matches against Fulham. They have a good record against this opponent. Fulham has also won by a margin of 2 goals or more at Selhurst, but Palace is ahead in recent form.

Palace Absentees

• ●Muñoz (Knee)
• ●Sar (International Duty)
• ●Kporha (Back)

Fulham Absentees (Many!)

• ●Bassey, Chukwueze, Iwobi (International Duty)
• ●Muniz, Kevin, Diop (Injury)

Fulham has as many as 6 players out. The defensive line almost has to be rebuilt. Palace is relatively relaxed with only 3 players missing.

Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)

• ●GK: Henderson
• ●DF: Cambot, Lacroix, Guehi
• ●MF: Clyne, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell
• ●FW: Pino, Mateta, Nketiah

Fulham (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Leno
• ●DF: Tete, Andersen, Cuenca, Robinson
• ●MF: Berge, Lukić, Wilson, Smith Rowe, Reed
• ●FW: Jiménez

Predicted Score: Crystal Palace 2-1 Fulham

Palace win. The probability is 35%.

A similar development to a month ago is likely to occur. Fulham will push with possession, but Palace will finish efficiently on the counterattack. Nketiah may score the opening goal once again.

Fulham may also create an equalizer through Jiménez. However, the most realistic scenario is that Palace will score the winning goal in the second half and end the game 2-1. Guehi may score a goal from a set piece.

Over 2.5 goals is likely to occur. Both teams have unstable defenses, and 3 goals were scored a month ago.

It's a good opportunity for Palace fans to break their 5-game winless jinx. Fulham has many players out, and Palace also has a better head-to-head record. They may be able to set off a victory celebration at Selhurst on New Year's Day.

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