FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05: Bundesliga Match Preview

The match between FC St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05 on May 3rd at 22:30 KST carries significant weight in the late-season competition for league positions. The home team St. Pauli is in a slump with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five matches, while visitors Mainz 05 show relatively better form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses over the same period. Despite St. Pauli's power index advantage of 105 versus 57 (a 48-point differential), contrasting goal-scoring and conceding statistics suggest a competitive encounter ahead.

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Recent Form

FC St. Pauli

Stat	Value
Last 10	2W 3D 5L
Goals / Conceded	6 / 18

FSV Mainz 05

Stat	Value
Last 10	3W 4D 3L
Goals / Conceded	14 / 16

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Bundesliga Season Record

	FC St. Pauli (Home)	FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
W-D-L	4-4-4	2-5-6
Win Rate	33%	15%

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Key Stats

Based on last 10 matches

Metric	FC St. Pauli	FSV Mainz 05
Goals/Game	0.6	1.4
Conceded/Game	1.8	1.6
Over 2.5	40%	50%
BTTS	40%	70%
Clean Sheet	20%	10%

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Head-to-Head

FC St. Pauli Wins	Draws	FSV Mainz 05 Wins	Total
0	1	4	5

Recent Meetings

무 FC St. Pauli 0 - 0 FSV Mainz 05 (2025-12-21)

패 FC St. Pauli 0 - 2 FSV Mainz 05 (2025-02-22)

패 FC St. Pauli 0 - 3 FSV Mainz 05 (2024-10-05)

역대 전적: FSV Mainz 05 우세 (4승 1무 0패)

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TrendSoccer Analysis

	Probability
FC St. Pauli	████████░░░░░░░░ 48%
Draw	████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 24%
FSV Mainz 05	████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 28%

Detail	Analysis
analysis	Home Win
Grade	GOOD
Odds	2.77 / 3.24 / 2.54
Power Index	FC St. Pauli 105 vs FSV Mainz 05 57
Pattern	1-3-2 (4149 matches)

Tactical Points

St. Pauli records 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses at home (33% win rate), but exhibits poor offensive output with 0.6 goals per match. Conversely, 1.8 conceded goals per game indicates defensive vulnerabilities. Notably, the data shows a 100% win rate when scoring first, suggesting early match control is critical. FSV Mainz 05 shows poor away form with 2 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses (15% win rate), though maintains stronger attacking metrics at 1.4 goals per match. However, the 15% away win rate and weak comeback ability (14%) present significant limitations in late-game scenarios. In head-to-head history across five matches (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), Mainz 05 holds a clear advantage, creating psychological pressure on the home side.

Key Factors

1. Power diff: 48pts

2. Prob edge: 24.5%

3. Home 1st goal win: 86%

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FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga Tactical Breakdown