FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg: Bundesliga Match Preview

FC St. Pauli hosts SC Freiburg on March 23 at 01:30 KST in a Bundesliga clash. The home side demonstrates a significant power advantage with a 201-point index against Freiburg's 64, though recent form shows mixed results at 2W-1D-2L over five matches. Freiburg enters in poor form, recording just 1W-1D-3L in their last five outings, with an away record of only 15% (2W-3D-8P). Neither team exhibits defensive stability, creating a match where initial dominance and first-goal control will likely prove decisive.

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Recent Form

FC St. Pauli

Stat	Value
Last 10	3W 3D 4L
Goals / Conceded	9 / 14

SC Freiburg

Stat	Value
Last 10	3W 2D 5L
Goals / Conceded	10 / 16

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Bundesliga Season Record

	FC St. Pauli (Home)	SC Freiburg (Away)
W-D-L	4-4-4	2-3-8
Win Rate	33%	15%

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Key Stats

Based on last 10 matches

Metric	FC St. Pauli	SC Freiburg
Goals/Game	0.9	1.0
Conceded/Game	1.4	1.6
Over 2.5	50%	50%
BTTS	50%	40%
Clean Sheet	30%	10%

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Head-to-Head

FC St. Pauli Wins	Draws	SC Freiburg Wins	Total
3	1	5	9

Recent Meetings

패 FC St. Pauli 1 - 2 SC Freiburg (2025-11-09)

패 FC St. Pauli 0 - 1 SC Freiburg (2025-02-15)

승 FC St. Pauli 3 - 0 SC Freiburg (2024-09-28)

역대 전적: SC Freiburg 우세 (5승 1무 3패)

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TrendSoccer Analysis

	Probability
FC St. Pauli	████████░░░░░░░░ 52%
Draw	████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 22%
SC Freiburg	████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 26%

Detail	Analysis
analysis	Home Win
Grade	PICK
Odds	2.69 / 3.06 / 2.74
Power Index	FC St. Pauli 201 vs SC Freiburg 64
Pattern	1-3-2 (4112 matches)

Tactical Points

St. Pauli's home record stands at 4W-4D-4L (33% win rate), indicating inconsistency despite their power advantage. However, they maintain a 100% win rate when scoring first, highlighting the critical importance of early control and opening the scoring. Their offensive output of 0.9 goals per match is modest, yet Freiburg's 1.6 goals conceded per game suggests opportunities for penetration exist. Freiburg, despite averaging 1.0 goal per match, has deteriorated sharply in recent form at 1W-1D-3L over five outings. Their away record of 2W-3D-8P (15% win rate) represents a severe weakness. Both teams concede frequently—1.4 and 1.6 goals per match respectively—indicating defensive vulnerabilities that will likely prove consequential in determining the match outcome.

Key Factors

1. Power diff: 137pts

2. Prob edge: 30.1%

3. Home 1st goal win: 86%

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Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg Data-Driven Preview