Liverpool vs Leeds: New Year's Fireworks at Anfield

The first game of 2026. Liverpool hosts Leeds at Anfield. Liverpool is on a 7-game unbeaten streak, while Leeds has failed to win 82% of their 11 away games. Can Leeds pull off a surprise upset at Anfield on New Year's Day, January 1st?

Liverpool

• ●Season Record: 10 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses (18 games)
• ●Goals: 1.67 goals per game / Conceded: 1.44 goals per game
• ●Last 7 Games: Unbeaten (including a 4-game winning streak!)
• ●Possession: 61.1% / Shots on Target: 5
• ●Last 40 Home Games: 73% Win Rate
• ●Last 40 Home Games: 85% Unbeaten
• ●Home Possession: 59% / Home Shots on Target: 5.78
• ●Clean Sheets in Last 7 Home Games: 43%

Liverpool is flying high. They are unbeaten in 7 games and on a 4-game winning streak. They are even more formidable at home. They have won 73% of their last 40 games and are unbeaten in 85%. They dominate games with 59% possession and unleash 5.78 shots on target. Anfield is a true fortress.

Leeds United (16th)

• ●Season Record: 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses (18 games)
• ●Goals: 25 goals (1.39 goals per game) / Conceded: 32 goals
• ●Last 6 Games: 50% Draws
• ●Last 5 Games: Unbeaten (a turnaround in progress?)
• ●Last 11 Away Games: 82% Winless (9 games)
• ●40% of Last 10 Away Games: Lost by 2 or More Goals
• ●Away Shots on Target: 3.8 / Away Possession: 51.3%

Leeds seemed to be recovering with a 5-game unbeaten streak. However, their away record remains dismal. They have failed to win 82% of their 11 away games, and 40% of those games were lost by 2 or more goals. Breaking this trend at Anfield seems very difficult.

Looking at the last 4 games at Anfield:

• ●Liverpool: 3 wins / Leeds: 1 win
• ●Wins by 2 or More Goals: 2 games (Liverpool)

Liverpool is dominant. They have won 3 out of 4 games, and 2 of those wins were by 2 or more goals. Leeds has only won once at Anfield. History is on Liverpool's side.

Liverpool's Home Dominance

Arne Slot's Liverpool is fearsome at home. They are likely to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Ekitike will likely lead the line as a lone striker, with Wirtz and Chiesa operating on the flanks. Mac Allister will distribute creative passes from the center, while Gravenberch and Curtis Jones will supply the ball.

The problem is the number of injuries. Salah, Isak, Endo, Bajcetic, Szoboszlai, and Bradley are all out. The absence of Salah is a significant loss. But there's Wirtz. The world-class midfielder can fill that void.

The defense is also solid. Van Dijk and Konate will guard the center, and Alisson will be in goal. They have a clean sheet in 43% of their last 7 home games.

Leeds' Away Survival

Daniel Farke is also desperate. They have failed to win 82% of their 11 away games. They are likely to play defensively in a 3-5-2 formation.

Calvert-Lewin and Okafor will form a two-man attack. Tanaka and Ampadu will be responsible for the midfield, and Bogle and Gudmundsson will play as wing-backs on the flanks.

They only have 3.8 shots on target away from home. This is a big difference compared to Liverpool's 5.78. They are a team that doesn't get much of the ball (51.3%) and doesn't create many chances. They need to defend defensively and aim for a counter-attack.

1. Impact of Salah's Absence

The absence of Salah is a big loss for Liverpool. He is the best attacker in the Premier League. But there's Wirtz. If the best midfielder in the Bundesliga plays on the flank, the Leeds defense will struggle. Chiesa is also an experienced player.

2. Liverpool's Home Possession

Liverpool has 59% possession at home. Leeds only manages 51% away from home. This gap will determine the flow of the game. If Leeds doesn't get the ball, their attacking opportunities will be reduced. No matter how good Calvert-Lewin is, it's useless without supply.

3. Leeds' Counter-Attack Efficiency

If Leeds wants to win, their only option is counter-attacks. They need to utilize Calvert-Lewin's height and Okafor's speed. They need to target the moment when Liverpool's defensive line is high. Whether they can capitalize on a single opportunity can determine the game.

Liverpool Home Trends

• ●Last 7 Games: Unbeaten (4-game winning streak)
• ●Last 40 Home Games: 73% Win Rate
• ●Last 40 Home Games: 85% Unbeaten
• ●Last 20 League Games: 50% Win Rate
• ●vs Leeds Last 4 Home Games: 3 wins (2 games by 2 or more goals)

Leeds Away Trends

• ●Last 11 Away Games: 82% Winless (9 games)
• ●40% of Last 10 Away Games: Lost by 2 or More Goals
• ●Last 5 Games: Unbeaten (signs of a turnaround?)
• ●Last 6 Games: 50% Draws

The numbers point to Liverpool. They have a 73% win rate at home, and Leeds has failed to win 82% of their away games. Leeds has recovered with a 5-game unbeaten streak, but Anfield is a different level of stadium.

Liverpool Out (Many!)

• ●Isak, Leoni, Endo, Bajcetic, Szoboszlai, Salah, Bradley

Leeds Out

• ●Nmecha (hamstring)

Liverpool has 7 players out. The absence of Salah is particularly critical. But with Wirtz, Chiesa, and Mac Allister, the attacking power itself won't collapse. Leeds only has Nmecha out, so they are relatively comfortable.

Liverpool (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Alisson
• ●DF: Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez
• ●MF: Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Chiesa, Mac Allister, Wirtz
• ●FW: Ekitike

Leeds (3-5-2)

• ●GK: Perry
• ●DF: Rodon, Bjorn, Struijk
• ●MF: Bogle, Ampadu, Stach, Gudmundsson, Tanaka
• ●FW: Calvert-Lewin, Okafor

Predicted Score: Liverpool 2-1 Leeds

Liverpool win. The probability is 50%.

Liverpool is likely to score the first goal in the first half. Wirtz or Mac Allister will break through the Leeds defense. Leeds can also create a goal or so on the counter-attack. Calvert-Lewin can score from a set-piece or counter.

But the most realistic scenario is that Liverpool will score an additional goal in the second half and end the game 2-1. Ekitike may play a crucial role.

There is also a good chance of Over 2.5 goals. Liverpool is scoring 1.67 goals per game, and the Leeds defense is unstable with 32 goals conceded.

Liverpool fans will likely celebrate a victory at Anfield on New Year's Day. It could be a tough New Year for Leeds fans. To break their away jinx, they need to get results at stadiums like this, but Anfield is a really difficult place.

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