Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: The Curse of El Sadar

The 12th and 8th place teams meet. The difference in standings is 4 places, but Osasuna's recent form is far superior. Osasuna is invincible at home, and Bilbao is on a 5-game winless streak. Can Bilbao escape their dark tunnel in this match at Estadio El Sadar on January 3rd?

Osasuna (12th)

• ●Season Record: 17 matches / Goals: 17 goals / Conceded: 20 goals
• ●Last 6 matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
• ●Average Goals Scored: 2.17 goals / Average Goals Conceded: 1.33 goals
• ●Last 3 Home Matches: 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss
• ●Home Average Goals Scored: 2 goals
• ●Last 30 Home Matches: 24 matches undefeated (80%)
• ●Last 20 Home Matches in La Liga: 80% undefeated
• ●Last 15 Home Matches Clean Sheets: 47%

Osasuna is formidable at home. They are undefeated in 24 of their 30 matches. The 80% stat is impressive. They score 2 goals per game, and their clean sheet rate is 47%. El Sadar has truly become a fortress. Their recent 6 matches have also been stable with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss.

Athletic Bilbao (8th)

• ●Season Record: 18 matches / Goals: 16 goals / Conceded: 24 goals
• ●Last 5 matches: Winless (0 wins!)
• ●Last 6 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses
• ●Average Goals Scored: 0.33 goals (Drought!)
• ●Last 12 Away Matches: 10 matches winless (83%)
• ●Last 14 matches: 7 losses (50%)
• ●Last 15 Away Matches: 40% lost by 2 or more goals

Bilbao is falling apart. They are on a 5-game winless streak. It's even worse away from home. They haven't won 10 of their 12 matches and are only scoring 0.33 goals per game. That's practically scoreless. Conceding 24 goals means they're conceding 1.33 goals per game. Their defense is much more unstable than Osasuna's.

Looking at the last 8 matches at El Sadar:

• ●Osasuna: 3 wins / Bilbao: 5 wins / Draws: 0

The interesting thing is that there are no draws. One of the two teams always wins. Bilbao is ahead in the head-to-head record, but Osasuna is much more favorable considering their recent form.

Osasuna's Home Strength

Hagoba Arrasate's Osasuna is strong at home. They are likely to play in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-3-2 formation.

Budimir will play as the lone striker, with Aimar Oroz providing creative passes behind him. Moncayola and Torro will control the midfield, and Catena and Herrando will protect the defense.

They are scoring 2 goals per game at home. Their clean sheet rate is also 47%. With Bilbao's attack only scoring 0.33 goals per game, they can win by defending and scoring just one goal.

Bilbao's Away Survival

Ernesto Valverde will also have a lot to think about. They are on a 5-game winless streak. They are likely to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Guruzeta will play as the lone striker, with Nico Williams and Sancet moving on the flanks and in the center. Garreta and Jauregizar will control the midfield.

Nico Williams is Bilbao's only hope. He needs to trouble Osasuna's defense with his wing play. However, the entire team has only scored 0.33 goals per game in the last 5 matches, making it difficult to even create one goal.

1. Osasuna's Home Form vs Bilbao's Away Slump

This is the key. Osasuna is undefeated in 80% of their last 30 home games, and Bilbao has failed to win 83% of their last 12 away games. This contrast will determine the outcome of the match.

2. Bilbao's Goal Drought

Bilbao is only scoring 0.33 goals per game away from home. It's even more difficult considering Osasuna has a 47% clean sheet rate at home. Guruzeta and Nico Williams need to take their chances, but there won't be many chances to begin with.

3. Budimir's Finishing

Budimir is the key to this match. He is the core of Osasuna's attack. Paredes and Vivian need to stop Budimir, but it won't be easy considering Bilbao's defense is conceding 1.33 goals per game.

Osasuna Home Trends

• ●Last 30 Home Matches: 80% undefeated (24 matches)
• ●Last 20 Home Matches in La Liga: 80% undefeated
• ●Last 15 Home Matches Clean Sheets: 47%
• ●Home Average Goals Scored: 2 goals

Bilbao Trends

• ●Last 5 matches: Winless
• ●Last 14 matches: 50% loss (7 losses)
• ●Last 12 Away Matches: 83% winless (10 matches)
• ●Last 15 Away Matches: 40% lost by 2 or more goals
• ●Away Average Goals Scored: 0.33 goals

The numbers are pointing towards Osasuna. When a team that is 80% undefeated at home meets a team that is 83% winless away, the result is obvious. It is also important that Bilbao has lost 40% of their 15 away matches by 2 or more goals.

Osasuna (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Herrera
• ●DF: Aregibide, Catena, Herrando, Brettones
• ●MF: Torro, Moncayola, Aimar Oroz, Ruben Garcia, Victor Muñoz
• ●FW: Budimir

Athletic Bilbao (4-2-3-1)

• ●GK: Unai Simon
• ●DF: Areso, Paredes, Vivian, Boiro
• ●MF: Garreta, Jauregizar, Berenguer, Sancet, Nico Williams
• ●FW: Guruzeta

Predicted Score: Osasuna 2-0 Bilbao

Osasuna wins. The probability is 44%.

Osasuna will dominate the game at home. They are a team that scores 2 goals per game, and Bilbao's defense is unstable. Budimir will score the opening goal in the first half, and Oroz or Ruben Garcia may score an additional goal.

It seems really difficult for Bilbao to score as they are only scoring 0.33 goals per game away from home. Nico Williams may create one chance with his individual skills, but Herrera will stop it. A 2-0 victory with a clean sheet for Osasuna is the most realistic scenario.

Under 2.5 goals is also possible. Osasuna has a 47% clean sheet rate, and Bilbao is almost scoreless. However, considering Osasuna's attacking power, they will likely score 2 or more goals.

It's a good opportunity for Osasuna fans to show the power of El Sadar. It's a really difficult time for Bilbao fans. Playing away against Osasuna while being on a 5-game winless streak, the end of the tunnel is nowhere in sight.

#LaLiga #Osasuna #AthleticBilbao #MatchPreview #ElSadar #BasqueFootball