SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg: Bundesliga Match Preview

Freiburg hosts Wolfsburg on May 4 at 14:30 KST in a late-season Bundesliga fixture. The hosts bring strong recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches and a solid home record of 58% (7W-4D-1L), while Wolfsburg struggles with only 1 win in their last 5 games and a weak away record of 25% (3W-2D-7L). The 86-point power index gap and head-to-head advantage (Freiburg 10 wins) add significance to this encounter.

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Recent Form

SC Freiburg

Stat	Value
Last 10	4W 1D 5L
Goals / Conceded	12 / 19

VfL Wolfsburg

Stat	Value
Last 10	1W 3D 6L
Goals / Conceded	12 / 22

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Bundesliga Season Record

	SC Freiburg (Home)	VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
W-D-L	7-4-1	3-2-7
Win Rate	58%	25%

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Key Stats

Based on last 10 matches

Metric	SC Freiburg	VfL Wolfsburg
Goals/Game	1.2	1.2
Conceded/Game	1.9	2.2
Over 2.5	70%	70%
BTTS	50%	70%
Clean Sheet	10%	10%

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Head-to-Head

SC Freiburg Wins	Draws	VfL Wolfsburg Wins	Total
10	3	7	20

Recent Meetings

승 SC Freiburg 4 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg (2025-12-20)

승 SC Freiburg 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg (2025-04-26)

승 SC Freiburg 3 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg (2024-12-13)

역대 전적: 호각세 (10승 3무 7패)

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TrendSoccer Analysis

	Probability
SC Freiburg	█████████░░░░░░░ 58%
Draw	████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 24%
VfL Wolfsburg	███░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 18%

Detail	Analysis
analysis	Home Win
Grade	GOOD
Odds	2.52 / 3.51 / 2.65
Power Index	SC Freiburg 127 vs VfL Wolfsburg 41
Pattern	1-3-3 (1550 matches)

Tactical Points

Freiburg's home stability stands out distinctly. The home record of 7W-4D-1L demonstrates strong ground advantage, and this aligns with the recent 3-win streak to create positive momentum. Defensively, conceding 1.9 goals per match is more solid than Wolfsburg's 2.2 GPG, yet 4 goalless outings in the last 10 matches reveal an attacking consistency weakness. Wolfsburg shows severe away fragility at 25% (3W-2D-7L), compounded by recent poor form and zero comeback ability. Both teams match 1.2 goals per game, but Wolfsburg's elevated goals conceded (2.2 GPG) and recent 1W-3L stretch suggest defensive instability under late-season pressure, particularly in the final stages.

Key Factors

1. Extreme Contrast Between Home Strength and Away Weakness Freiburg's 58% home win rate (7W-4D-1L) versus Wolfsburg's 25% away record (3W-2D-7L) creates a 33-point gap that starkly illustrates venue dependence. Wolfsburg's 7 away losses highlight a severely disadvantageous environment for securing a result at Freiburg's ground.

2. Significant Recent Form Disparity and Late-Season Momentum Freiburg's 3 wins in 5 games provides crucial advantage in late-season title/positioning battles, while Wolfsburg's 1W-1D-3L suggests struggle in relegation contention or upper-table security. The 0% comeback rate signals severe resilience deficit under second-half pressure situations typical of season finales.

3. Power Index Gap (86 Points) Predicts Match Dynamics The 86-point spread (Freiburg 127 vs Wolfsburg 41), derived from 1,550-match patterns and 161+ game samples, translates to a 40.5% probability edge and reveals severe squad capability imbalance. Head-to-head record (Freiburg 10W-3D-7L) corroborates this gap.

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SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg — What the Data Says | Bundesliga