Udinese vs Roma: Giallorossi Target Another Three Points at Dacia Arena

This fixture pits two teams heading in opposite directions. Roma, sitting fourth and firmly in the top-four race, visit a Udinese side that has been winless in five of their last six home matches. Having already dispatched Udinese 2-0 in the reverse fixture, Roma carry significant momentum and statistical advantages into this clash at Dacia Arena.

Udinese - Struggling at Home

Udinese's last six matches paint an inconsistent picture: 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. While their scoring rate of 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.17 appears balanced, the underlying numbers are concerning. Just 3 shots on target per game suggests they struggle to threaten goalkeepers even when creating chances.

Their home form is particularly alarming. They have been winless in 5 of their last 6 home matches and have lost 70% of their last 10 home games against Roma. With possession averaging below 45%, they rarely control proceedings even with home advantage. Conceding over 1.5 goals per game across the league campaign underlines defensive vulnerabilities that Roma will look to exploit.

Roma - Balance and Brilliance

Roma are flying with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last six. They score 1.83 goals per game while conceding a miserly 0.67, with 4.83 shots on target and 57.67% average possession demonstrating complete control of matches.

Their away record is remarkable. In 32 recent away matches, they have recorded 13 clean sheets, and 38% of their last 26 games have been won by two or more goals. Dybala, Malen, and Soulé provide the attacking spark, while Serie A's second-best defense (13 goals conceded in 22 games) anchors everything.

Attacking Metrics

• ●Goals per game (last 6): Udinese 1.33 vs Roma 1.83
• ●Shots on target per game: Udinese 3.00 vs Roma 4.83
• ●Season total goals: Udinese 25 vs Roma 27

Defensive Metrics

• ●Goals conceded per game (last 6): Udinese 1.17 vs Roma 0.67
• ●Season total conceded: Udinese 34 vs Roma 13 ⚡
• ●Clean sheets (32 away games): Roma 13

Possession

• ●Udinese ~45% vs Roma 57.67%

Udinese (10th)

After 22 rounds, Udinese have 8 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses with 25 scored and 34 conceded for a -9 goal difference. Their defensive record is their Achilles heel, with 34 goals conceded ranking among the league's worst. The fact that they have lost 70% of their last 10 home matches against Roma adds historical weight to Roma's favoritism.

Roma (4th)

Roma's 14 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses have them firmly in fourth place. While scoring just 1.23 goals per game suggests pragmatism over flair, their 13 goals conceded — the league's second-best defensive record — is the foundation of their campaign. Dybala's individual brilliance combined with disciplined defensive structures under the current system have produced 7 wins in 12 recent Serie A matches.

Roma won the first meeting 2-0 at home. Pellegrini converted a penalty in the 42nd minute, and Çelik added a second in the 61st. Roma dominated with 58% possession and created 53 dangerous attacks to Udinese's 28, with shots finishing 13-10 in their favor. While Udinese managed some chances, they lacked the clinical edge.

Udinese's Counter Plan

Udinese will likely set up in a 4-4-2 focused on compact midfield defense and counter-attacks. Karlström will be tasked with disrupting Roma's build-up, while Ekkelenkamp provides the creative link. Keinan Davis's physicality could be used for direct long-ball tactics. However, with possession below 45%, winning the ball back consistently against Roma's possession game will be extremely difficult. Set pieces represent their most realistic scoring avenue.

Roma's Away Dominance

Roma are expected to deploy their 3-4-3 with Dybala, Malen, and Soulé in attack. While Pellegrini and El Shaarawy are absent through injury, Wesley and Cristante provide midfield stability. The Mancini-Ndicka center-back pairing is among Serie A's best, and Svilar has been reliable in goal. Roma will look to control possession, patiently build through the thirds, and rely on Dybala's individual brilliance and Malen's runs in behind to create decisive chances.

Udinese (4-4-2)

• ●GK: Okoye
• ●DF: Solet, Kristensen, Kabasele, Bertola
• ●MF: Zanoli, Karlström, Zemura, Lennon Miller
• ●FW: Ekkelenkamp, Davis

Roma (3-4-3)

• ●GK: Svilar
• ●DF: Mancini, Ndicka, Ghilardi
• ●MF: Cristante, Wesley, Tsimikas, Çelik
• ●FW: Malen, Soulé, Dybala

1. Roma's Defensive Wall

With just 13 goals conceded all season — the league's second-best record — Roma's defense is a formidable barrier. Against a Udinese side averaging only 3 shots on target per game, the likelihood of a clean sheet is high. Roma only need one goal to win, and their defensive structure allows them that luxury.

2. Dybala's Decisive Moments

With Pellegrini and El Shaarawy absent, the creative burden falls squarely on Dybala. His ability to produce magic in big moments is well-documented, and his growing partnership with Soulé adds another dimension. Against Udinese's struggling defense, expect Dybala to find pockets of space.

3. Udinese's Home Hoodoo

Winless in 5 of 6 at home, with a 70% loss rate against Roma in their last 10 home meetings — the numbers are damning. Breaking this cycle requires an intensity and clinical finishing that Udinese have simply not shown recently. While home support could provide a spark, Roma's away experience and mental strength should prove decisive.

Roma are clear favorites in this fixture. Their 4 wins in 6 recent matches, Serie A's second-best defense (13 conceded), and 13 clean sheets in 32 away games present overwhelming evidence. Udinese's 5-game winless home run and lack of shots on target make it difficult to see how they score, let alone win.

The most probable scenario sees Roma taking an early lead and controlling the match through possession. Udinese may threaten on the counter, but their blunt attack lacks the tools to consistently breach Roma's backline. Final analysis: Roma to win 1-0 or 2-0